Review of the dollar, euro, pound, yen, aussie and gold prices for December 17, 2020


Today during the Asian session, the EUR / USD pair is falling, retreating from record highs since April 2018, once again updated the day before. Technical factors in favor of the American currency contribute to the negative dynamics, as many traders are in a hurry to fix profits on long positions. The fundamental picture in the market changes little, and investors still see no reason to reverse the downward trend in the dollar. The macroeconomic statistics from the US published yesterday disappointed traders again. Thus, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week of December 11 rose to 885 thousand from the previous 862 thousand, although analysts expected a decrease in the figure to 800 thousand. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia for December corrected from 26.3 to 11.1 points, which also turned out to be worse than market expectations of 20 points. On Friday, European investors await the publication of statistics on the level of business optimism from IFO in Germany.


Today during the Asian session, the GBP / USD pair is actively declining, retreating from record highs, updated on Thursday. Bidders are closing part of their long positions, but they remain highly optimistic about trade negotiations between the UK and the EU during the Brexit transition. At the same time, the rhetoric of the officials remains ambiguous. The day before, the media leaked statements by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who stressed that an agreement would not be reached if the EU did not change its position on a number of problems. One of the stumbling blocks remains the issue of fishing. The talks are expected to continue today. In addition, November statistics on the dynamics of retail sales in the UK, which are forecast to be weak, will be released on Friday.


Today, during the Asian session, the AUD / USD pair is falling within the correction, testing the 0.7600 mark for a breakdown downward. The instrument is decreasing against the background of the correctional growth of the American currency relative to most of its competitors, which is generally conditioned by technical factors. There was some support for the dollar yesterday as the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) tentatively approved Moderna’s emergency COVID-19 vaccine, increasing the potential for future vaccination campaigns. On Friday, December 18, the markets are awaiting a final decision on this issue. The positions of the Australian currency, in turn, are supported by positive macroeconomic statistics. Thus, the employment rate in Australia in November rose by 90 thousand new jobs, which exceeded market expectations of 50 thousand. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell from 7.0% to 6.8%, which also turned out to be better than analysts’ neutral forecasts.


Today during the Asian session, the USD / JPY pair is growing steadily, recovering from the record lows, updated the day before. In addition to technical factors supporting the dollar at the end of the week, the FDA’s readiness to approve Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine is fueling optimism. But macroeconomic statistics from the US often come out worse than market forecasts, which puts additional pressure on the positions of the American currency. So, on the eve of investors negatively met an increase in the number of applications for unemployment benefits, as well as a sharp drop in the dynamics of retail sales. In November, the indicator fell 1.1% m / m after falling by 0.1% m / m last month. Investors expected negative dynamics at the level of -0.3% m / m. The Japanese yen, in turn, is under moderate pressure after the meeting of the Bank of Japan on Friday. As expected, the Japanese regulator did not change the parameters of monetary policy, but extended the terms of its program to buy back commercial paper by six months until September 2021.


Gold prices are consolidating after yesterday’s strong growth, which allowed updating local highs from November 16. The positive dynamics is due to the publication on Wednesday of the minutes of the Fed meeting, which reflected the regulator’s readiness to increase the volume of quantitative easing programs, as well as to keep rates at minimum levels for a long time. In addition, the markets are hoping for an early approval of a new package of fiscal stimulus for the US economy, as the latest macroeconomic publications from the US raise serious concerns.

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