Review of the dollar, euro, pound, yen, aussie and gold prices for December 16, 2020


Today during the Asian session, the EUR / USD pair is growing slightly, gradually returning to the previous record highs around the level of 1.2174. The U.S. dollar is weakening amid optimism about COVID-19 vaccinations, which are actively starting around the world. The process is expected to start in the United States soon, as the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recently approved the use of a drug from Pfizer and BioNTech. Yesterday it became known that the FDA is preparing to publish the results of the third phase of clinical trials of the vaccine from Moderna, which can also be interpreted as the first step towards its approval for emergency use in the country. Meanwhile, the epidemiological situation in the United States continues to be difficult. Earlier, the mayor of New York expressed the idea of ​​returning the city to a full-fledged quarantine in response to a sharp increase in the number of cases. On Wednesday, the focus of European investors is on a block of macroeconomic statistics on business activity in Germany and the eurozone. Analysts predict the appearance of weak data, so there is no reason to count on a noticeable increase in the single currency.


Today, during the Asian session, the GBP / USD pair is trading in a multidirectional manner, consolidating after yesterday’s sharp rise, which allowed the pound to recover to 1.3450. The instrument is supported by growing optimism about a trade deal between the UK and the EU before the end of the year. Despite the fact that there are only two weeks before the deadline, the markets are counting on the successful completion of the negotiations, which will allow London to maintain certain advantages in the European market and remove some of the additional risks. The British macroeconomic statistics released yesterday put additional pressure on the pound. Thus, the number of applications for unemployment benefits in November increased by 64.3 thousand after falling by 29.8 thousand over the previous period. Analysts hoped to increase the indicator by only 50 thousand. The unemployment rate in October rose from 4.8% to 4.9% (according to data for 3 months), which, however, did not exceed the psychological level of 5%, as skeptics expected. At the same time, the average salary, including bonuses, in October rose sharply from + 1.3% to + 2.7%, ahead of the expected value of + 2.2%.


Today during the Asian session, the AUD / USD pair is showing flat dynamics, remaining close to its record highs, updated at the beginning of the week. Investors are in no hurry to open new trading positions, preferring to wait for the results of the two-day Fed meeting, which will become known later on Wednesday. Markets do not expect a decrease in interest rates, but they expect that the regulator will make it clear in what vector its further monetary policy will develop, given the urgent need for additional stimuli for the American economy. Moderate support for the instrument on Wednesday was provided by the published macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Thus, the PMI index in the services sector from Commonwealth Bank for December rose from 55.4 to 57.4 points. The manufacturing PMI rose from 55.8 to 56 points and the composite PMI rose from 54.9 to 57 points. The index of leading economic indicators from Westpac for November accelerated from the previous + 0.3% m / m to + 0.46% m / m.


Today, during the Asian session, the USD / JPY pair is significantly decreasing, updating local lows since November 9 and testing the 103.50 mark for a breakdown downward. Investors are selling the US currency ahead of the publication of the final minutes of the two-day Fed meeting, which, as expected, may indicate additional easing of monetary policy in the country. Additional pressure on the dollar is exerted by the US macroeconomic statistics published yesterday. Thus, the volume of industrial production in November fell from + 0.9% m / m to + 0.4% m / m, which, however, turned out to be slightly better than market expectations of + 0.3% m / m. In turn, the macroeconomic statistics of Japan, published today, restrain the further growth of the yen. Exports fell 4.2% y / y in November after falling 0.2% y / y in the previous period. Analysts had expected the indicator to rise by 0.5% y / y. Imports for the same period decreased by 11.1% y / y, slightly improving from the previous dynamics at -13.3% y / y. Such a sharp drop in exports led to a decrease in the trade surplus from 871.7 billion to 366.8 billion Japanese yen.


Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are slightly growing, updating local highs since December 9 and preparing to test the 1860.00 mark for a breakdown upward. The day before, the instrument rose by more than 1%, responding to positive expectations regarding further easing of the Fed’s monetary policy and the approval of a new stimulus package for the US economy. In addition, markets are responding to increased quarantine measures around the world, even as optimism about COVID-19 vaccines continues. In particular, at the beginning of the week, the mayor of the city, Bill de Blasio, spoke about the possible closure of New York for a full-fledged quarantine, who noted a noticeable threat to city health due to the high rate of morbidity.

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