Review of the dollar, euro, pound, yen, aussie and gold prices for April 7, 2021


EUR / USD

The European currency demonstrates flat trading dynamics against the US dollar during today’s Asian session, consolidating near local highs since March 23, updated due to the active growth of the single currency the day before. Despite the fact that European markets were closed on Monday due to Easter holidays, the instrument started the current trading week very confidently. The reason for this was the correction of the dollar, which ignored the upbeat statistics from the US on Friday and Monday, but reacted to the reduction of long positions by the leading hedge funds, as well as to the correction in the yield of US Treasury bonds. Macroeconomic statistics from Europe released yesterday were mixed. Thus, the indicator of investor confidence from Sentix in April showed a steady growth from 5 to 13.1 points with the forecast of growth only up to 7.5 points. The unemployment rate in the euro area remained at the same level of 8.3%, while analysts expected it to fall to 8.1%.

GBP / USD

The British pound is trading with multidirectional dynamics during today’s morning session, consolidating near 1.3820 after an active decline the day before, which did not allow the instrument to gain a foothold at new local highs since March 19. The US dollar is gradually recovering in the market after an uncertain beginning of April, although it should be noted that the growth is extremely uneven. The US currency is supported by restrained optimism about the prospects for the US economic recovery amid stimulus programs and an active vaccination campaign. In the UK, the pace of the vaccination campaign is also high, with investors expecting a partial opening of the economy as early as April.

AUD / USD

The Australian dollar is showing negative dynamics today, despite the fact that at the opening of the daytime session the instrument managed to renew its local maximums since March 23rd. Moderate support for the instrument today is provided by rather positive macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Thus, the index of activity in the construction sector in Australia from AiG in March showed a sharp rise from 57.4 to 61.8 points, which turned out to be better than the average market expectations. In turn, the index of business activity in the service sector from Commonwealth Bank for the same period increased from 53.4 to 55.5 points, which did not reach the forecasts of 56.2 points. The composite index also rose from 53.7 to 55.5 points in March. The focus of investors’ attention today will be the publication of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting, as well as the February statistics on the US trade balance. Traders will also pay attention to the speech of the representative of the US Federal Reserve, Charles Evans.

USD / JPY

The US dollar is showing flat dynamics against the Japanese yen, consolidating near the level of 109.75 after the active decline of the instrument the day before. Macroeconomic statistics from the US released on Tuesday did not provide any noticeable support for the American currency. At the same time, the index of economic optimism in the USA in April from IBD / TIPP increased from 55.4 to 56.4 points, and the index of retail sales from Redbook for the week of April 2 added + 10.6% y / y, accelerating from the previous growth by + 9.8% YoY. Yesterday’s statistics from Japan, in turn, disappointed with a sharp fall in household spending in February by 6.6% y / y, while analysts had expected their decline by only 2.1% y / y.

XAU / USD

Gold prices are showing a slight decline during today’s trading in Asia, retreating from local highs since March 25, updated the day before. The quotes are still supported by volatile positions in the US currency, which began trading in April with uncertainty, despite the publication of strong data on the labor market and business sentiment. A noticeable pressure on the dollar is exerted by the fact of a decrease in the yield of Treasury bonds, which retreated from their record highs. At the same time, the demand for risky assets remains quite high as positive macroeconomic statistics from the United States and China arrive, which strengthen confidence in the early recovery of the world economy after the pandemic. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting, but so far it is not necessary to count on any changes. The American regulator ignores the risks of inflation, which are growing against the background of a sharp increase in budget spending, and continues to adhere to a policy of low interest rates, which, according to forecasts of the US Federal Reserve, will remain at current minimum levels for a long time.

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