Review of the dollar, euro, pound, yen, aussie and gold prices for April 28, 2021


EUR / USD

The European currency has been declining against the US dollar during today’s Asian session, retreating from the local highs, updated at the beginning of the week, when the pair was trying to gain a foothold above 1.2100. Investors are fixing long profits ahead of today’s publication of the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting, as they expect to hear updated forecasts regarding the timing of the start of monetary tightening. Traders are also worried about the speech of the head of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde, who is in a more difficult position, given that the European economy is noticeably lagging behind the United States in terms of recovery. Noteworthy European macroeconomic statistics are due on Thursday with the April eurozone business sentiment report, and Germany is to release its labor market update.

GBP / USD

The British pound is significantly decreasing against the US dollar at the trading session of today’s morning session, leveling the results of the timid growth, which was observed with the opening of the week. Market participants are closing part of the existing long positions, preferring to wait for the publication of the final minutes of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which is expected to shed light on the nearest prospects for the regulator’s monetary policy. Investors will closely follow the rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and will be disappointed if he repeats his earlier words about “balance of risks” and “close monitoring of the economic situation.” Some pressure on the pound is exerted by the retail price index published today from the Confederation of British Industrialists. In March, the indicator again showed a noticeable decline of 1.3% y / y after a decline of 2.4% y / y.

AUD / USD

The Australian dollar is developing bearish against the US currency during today’s trading in Asia, returning to last Friday’s levels and trying to gain a foothold below the 0.7750 level. A noticeable pressure on the instrument is exerted by the correction of the US dollar ahead of the publication of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting. Markets do not expect noticeable changes in the vector of monetary policy, but they are counting on tougher rhetoric from the regulator, which would reflect the high pace of recovery of the American economy after the coronavirus crisis. On Wednesday, weak national macroeconomic statistics put additional pressure on the Australian dollar. Thus, the consumer price index for the 1st quarter of 2021 slowed down from 0.9% to 0.6% qoq, which turned out to be worse than the neutral forecasts of analysts. The core inflation index of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) dropped to 0.3% qoq over the same period, which is also worse than market forecasts at 0.5% qoq. In annual terms, the inflation rate rose from 0.9% to 1.1% y / y, but fell short of the optimistic estimates at 1.4% y / y.

USD / JPY

The US dollar continues to grow actively against the Japanese yen, receiving additional support ahead of the publication of the final minutes of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve. Demand for the “safe” yen remains weak, given the continued excitement in the market regarding the pace of global economic recovery. On the other hand, investors fear a new wave of coronavirus infection in Japan, given the alarming statistics on the incidence in certain prefectures of the country. The day before, the Bank of Japan held a meeting on the interest rate, following which, as expected, the regulator kept the parameters of the monetary policy unchanged. At the same time, the Bank of Japan increased its own forecasts for GDP growth in the current fiscal year from + 1.8% y / y to + 2.4% y / y.

XAU / USD

Gold prices are falling during trading in today’s Asian session, developing the corrective momentum that had formed the day before. The instrument is under slight pressure ahead of the publication of the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting, which, as many expect, will bring some tightening of the regulator’s rhetoric regarding economic stimulus measures. So far, we are only talking about the prospects for reducing quantitative easing programs, but this will be quite enough for the markets. In addition, this week investors will pay attention to the publication of data on the dynamics of US GDP. Forecasts assume that the US economy will grow 6.5% y / y in the first quarter of 2021, after increasing by 4.3% y / y over the previous period.

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