Review of the dollar, euro, pound, yen, aussie and gold prices for April 26, 2021


The European currency is showing moderate gains against the US dollar during today’s Asian session, continuing its Friday rally and renewing local highs since February 26. A noticeable support for the euro at the end of the last trading week was provided by the optimistic macroeconomic statistics from the eurozone. Thus, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from Markit in April rose from 62.5 to 63.3 points against the forecast of a decline to 62 points. Composite index of activity in the manufacturing sector for the same period rose from 53.2 to 53.7 points, which also turned out to be better than analysts’ expectations at 52.8 points. For the first time in a long time, the index of business activity in the service sector managed to gain a foothold above the psychological mark of 50 points: in April, the indicator rose from 49.6 to 50.3 points, contrary to forecasts of a fall to 49.1 points. The focus of European investors today is the publication of information from the IFO on the level of business optimism in Germany in April. In addition, during the day, the markets are expected to speak by representatives of the European Central Bank Fabio Panetta and Philip Lane.


The British pound is strengthening at the beginning of the new week, developing the upward momentum that appeared last Friday, and again testing the level of 1.3900 for a breakdown upward. The growth of buying activity for the instrument at the end of the last trading week, analysts associate with the emergence of strong macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Thus, the volume of retail sales in the country in March increased by 5.4% mom after increasing by 2.2% mom in February. Analysts had expected the indicator to slow down to + 1.5% m / m. On an annualized basis, sales volumes rose sharply by 7.2% YoY after declining 3.6% YoY in February. Analysts’ forecasts assumed an increase in the indicator by only + 3.5% y / y. The index of business activity in the services sector from Markit in April rose from 56.3 to 60.1 points, which also turned out to be better than market expectations at the level of 59 points. The index of activity in the manufacturing sector for the same period increased from 58.9 to 60.7 points.


The Australian dollar is significantly strengthening against the American currency in the trading session this morning, renewing local highs since April 20. The instrument develops a strong “bullish” momentum that appeared on the market last Friday, when investors were excited by the statements of US President Joe Biden, and also played back a large amount of macroeconomic statistics. The head of the White House proposed to raise the tax on long-term capital gains for the wealthy segments of the population to 43.4%, which will be the highest tax rate in history. Increasing the tax burden is one aspect of Biden’s new program to modernize US infrastructure, which will cost US taxpayers more than $ 2 billion. Additional support for the instrument on Friday was provided by strong macroeconomic statistics from Australia on the PMI in April. The composite PMI index from Commonwealth Bank in April rose from 55.5 to 58.8 points.


The US dollar is showing a moderate decline against the Japanese yen during today’s Asian session, developing a strong downtrend that has developed over the short / medium term. At the end of last week, the dollar renewed local lows against the Japanese currency since March 4, which was caused by a commotion in the market after the speech of US President Joe Biden, who came up with a proposal to sharply raise the tax rate on long-term capital gains for wealthy Americans, which triggered a wave of sales in stock markets. platforms and put significant pressure on a number of cryptocurrencies. The focus of investors today is the publication of statistics from the United States on the dynamics of orders for durable goods. Analysts’ forecasts are very optimistic in this regard, given the pace of recovery in the US economy and the rapid growth of consumer purchasing activity.


Gold prices show a slight increase during today’s Asian session, correcting after a decline at the end of last trading week, which did not allow the instrument to gain a foothold at new local highs since February 25. The pressure on the precious metal at the end of the week was exerted by the growth in the yield of US Treasury bonds, as well as the expectation of the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting, which will be held on April 28. Investors do not expect a change in monetary policy from the regulator at the moment, but they expect an update of the plan to tighten it in the near future, given the rapid growth of the American economy and the surge in inflation over the past few months.

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