Review of the dollar, euro, pound, yen, aussie and gold prices for April 22, 2021


The European currency is flat against the US dollar during today’s Asian session, continuing to hold close to the strong support at 1.2000. The fundamental picture on the market is changing weakly, and investors are waiting for new drivers to appear. In particular, a meeting of the European Central Bank on the interest rate with an accompanying press conference is expected today. Analysts’ forecasts suggest that the European regulator will leave the parameters of monetary policy unchanged, but the comments of the officials will be very important and interesting. Questions are also raised by the epidemiological situation in the region, associated with an increase in morbidity in individual countries and an insufficiently high rate of vaccination of the population.


The British pound is demonstrating multidirectional trading dynamics against the US dollar during today’s morning session, consolidating after an unsuccessful attempt to form a corrective downtrend. The British currency was somewhat supported by the macroeconomic data from the UK published on Wednesday. Thus, the consumer price index in March rose by 0.3% mom after increasing by 0.1% mom in February. The real dynamics of the index fully met the market forecasts. In annual terms, consumer inflation accelerated from + 0.4% y / y to + 0.7% y / y, which turned out to be worse than analysts’ expectations by only 0.1%. The core PPI without seasonal adjustment remained at the same level (+ 1.7% YoY), despite the forecast of a slowdown to + 1.3% YoY. The retail price index in March, as expected, decreased from + 0.5% m / m to + 0.3% m / m. Thus, in contrast to the USA, where the rate of inflation is renewing its highs, the rise in prices in the UK seems to be more measured and controlled by the regulator.


The Australian dollar is slightly lower against the US dollar during today’s Asian session, correcting after moderate gains the day before. The instrument was supported yesterday, apart from the weak positions of the US currency, by strong data from Australia. Thus, the volume of retail sales in the country increased by 1.4% mom in March after falling by 0.8% mom in February. Analysts expected positive dynamics to appear, but hoped for only + 1.0% m / m. The index of leading economic indicators from Westpac in March also showed an increase from + 0.17% m / m to + 0.38% m / m, ahead of most of the forecasts. Buying sentiment for the instrument is supported by data released today on the Business Confidence Index of the National Bank of Australia, which reflected an increase in the indicator from 14 points to 17 points in 1Q2021. Analysts’ forecasts assumed a decrease to 7 points.


The US dollar continues to weaken against the Japanese yen, updating local lows since March 5 and developing a rather active downtrend that has formed in the ultra-short and short term. The American currency remains under pressure amid falling yields on US Treasuries and a rather alarming epidemiological situation in many regions of the world, which casts doubt on previous forecasts regarding the pace of global economic recovery. This also means that, most likely, the US Federal Reserve will tighten its monetary policy more leisurely. Some revival in the market may come from Friday publications, as on that day Japan will report on the March dynamics of consumer inflation, and the US will publish data on the level of business activity for April and the dynamics of new home sales in March. As for the statements of financial regulators, the meetings of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan will be held next week.


Gold prices are consolidating after another rise the day before, which led to the renewal of local highs from February 25. The instrument, as before, is supported by the vulnerable positions of the US currency, as well as a further decrease in the yield of US Treasury bonds. In addition, investors are alarmed by the surge in the incidence of coronavirus in Japan, India and several other countries, which is forcing them to look for safer assets to stabilize risks. The market’s focus is still on meetings of global financial regulators. Thus, the European Central Bank will report on changes in its monetary policy today. The US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan will take over the baton next week. Despite the fact that analysts do not expect any changes in the interest rate and quantitative easing programs, it is important for traders to hear updated forecasts from regulators, given the rapidly changing market situation.

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