Review of the dollar, euro, pound, yen, aussie and gold prices for April 19, 2021


The European currency is rather actively declining against the US dollar during today’s Asian session, forming a potential corrective impulse, which can be supported by fresh drivers on the market. However, the dollar positions remain vulnerable against the background of the continuing decline in the yield of US Treasury bonds, and the rather strong macroeconomic statistics from the US, published last week, were unable to reverse the downtrend. The focus of investors today is on statistics from the eurozone on the current account balance and the volume of production in the construction sector. In addition, during the day, traders expect the publication of a monthly report from the Bundesbank.


The British pound is trading upward against the US dollar during today’s morning session, building on the bullish momentum it formed a week ago. The British currency is taking advantage of the weakness of the dollar, which ignored strong macroeconomic publications from the US on claims for unemployment benefits and retail sales dynamics. In addition, the pound looks favorably against the background of the euro, which is facilitated by a gradually improving epidemiological situation in the UK and an increase in vaccination rates. Macroeconomic publications from the UK provided some support to the instrument today. Thus, the house price index from Rightmove in April rose from + 0.8% m / m to + 2.1% m / m, which turned out to be better than the market average forecasts. In annual terms, the indicator accelerated from + 2.7% y / y to + 5.1% y / y. Investors expect the publication of labor market data for February and March tomorrow. In particular, the data on the unemployment rate from the ILO in February and the March jobless claims deserve attention.


The Australian dollar has shown slight gains against the US currency in trading in today’s Asian session, partly regaining losses last Friday, when the instrument showed corrective dynamics, retreating from monthly highs. Apart from technical factors of profit-taking at the end of the week, some pressure on the position of the Australian dollar was exerted by macroeconomic statistics from China, which reflected a noticeable weakening of the previous impetus for economic recovery. At the beginning of the week, the instrument is supported by upbeat macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Thus, the volume of new home sales in Australia in March showed a sharp increase from 22.9% m / m to 90.3% m / m, which can be associated with an improvement in the epidemiological situation in the country. Investors are awaiting the publication of the latest minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, as well as the decision of the People’s Bank of China on the interest rate, scheduled for April 20.


The US dollar is falling against the Japanese yen in trading this morning session, developing a fairly strong “bearish” trend in the short term and renewing local lows since March 24. The American currency expects new drivers to appear on the market, but for now it remains under the pressure of falling Treasury bond yields. In turn, the Japanese yen is getting some support after the release of macroeconomic statistics from Japan on Monday. Thus, the volume of exports from Japan in March rose sharply by 16.1% y / y after falling by 4.5% y / y last month. Analysts had expected the index to rise by only 11.6% y / y. Imports for the same period rose by 5.7% y / y, which turned out to be better than forecasted by 1.0%, but noticeably weaker than the dynamics of the previous month at the level of 11.8% y / y. The total trade balance in March increased from 215.9 billion to 663.7 billion Japanese yen. Analysts predicted a surplus of 490 billion yen.


Gold prices are showing multidirectional dynamics during today’s Asian trading session, holding close to local highs since February 25. The instrument is supported by extremely vulnerable positions in the US currency, which almost completely ignored strong macroeconomic publications from the US last week. Additional pressure on the dollar is exerted by the decline in the yield of US Treasury bonds, which recently renewed their annual highs. Market participants also calmed down somewhat about the growing inflation in the United States, as the US Federal Reserve continues to argue that the rise in prices is due only to the high pace of recovery of the American economy and will not lead to a revision of monetary policy until the dates indicated by the regulator itself.

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