Review of the dollar, euro, pound, yen, aussie and gold prices for April 1, 2021


The European currency is showing flat trading dynamics during today’s Asian session, consolidating in anticipation of new drivers in the market. On the eve, the instrument strengthened slightly, retreating from the lows since November 2020, which was facilitated by technical factors, as well as profit taking on the dollar ahead of Friday’s publication of the US labor market report for March. Macroeconomic statistics from Europe remained neutral, which, coupled with the difficult epidemiological situation in the region, creates a very depressing picture for the euro. Thus, the core consumer price index in the eurozone in March slowed down from + 1.1% y / y to + 0.9% y / y, while analysts’ forecasts suggested an increase in the indicator to + 1.2% y / y. The unemployment rate in Germany in March remained at around 6%, while the change in the number of unemployed slowed sharply from -37 thousand to -8 thousand, which, however, turned out to be better than market expectations at the level of -3 thousand. Investors are now focusing on statistics from Germany on retail sales for February; and a block of data on business activity in Europe from Markit.


The British pound is trading in different directions against the US dollar during today’s Asian session, developing flat dynamics that is developing in the short term. The position of the British currency was supported yesterday by the positive macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Thus, according to the updated data, UK GDP grew by 1.3% qoq in Q4 2020 against an increase of 1% qoq according to previous estimates. In annual terms, the UK economy lost 7.3% y / y, which also turned out to be better than the previous data at the level of -7.8% y / y. The tool is supported by the optimistic epidemiological situation in the country, as well as expectations of store openings from April 12.


The Australian dollar is trading lower against the US currency today, trading near the local lows of February 2. Investors are opening new short positions ahead of Friday’s US labor market report, which is expected to show very optimistic results. The data released yesterday from ADP on the level of employment in the private sector reflected an increase in the number of new jobs in March by 517 thousand after an increase of 176 thousand in the previous month. Analysts’ forecasts assumed an increase of 550 thousand. Macroeconomic statistics from Australia, published today, do not provide significant support to the instrument. At the same time, the index of activity in the manufacturing sector from AiG in March continued to grow and strengthened from 58.8 to 59.9 points. At the same time, the volume of exports from the country in February fell sharply by 1% after growing by 6% in January. By contrast, imports gained 5% over the same period after a 2% decline. All this led to a noticeable decrease in the trade surplus in February from 10.142 billion to 7.529 billion Australian dollars.


The US dollar is consolidating against the Japanese yen in today’s trading, continuing to hold near the record highs, updated the day before. Market activity is gradually declining, given the upcoming Easter holidays, but investors are awaiting the publication of the US labor market report for March, which will take place on Friday. Recall that market forecasts assume a noticeable increase in the number of new jobs created by the American economy outside the agricultural sector. The unemployment rate should also decline and reach 6%. In the meantime, moderate support for the yen on Thursday is provided by relatively positive macroeconomic statistics from Japan. The Tankan Index of Large Manufacturers (Business Conditions Index) in Q1 2021 increased from -10 to 5 points, which turned out to be significantly better than market expectations at 0 points. Jibun Bank’s manufacturing PMI rose from 52 to 52.7 in March.


Gold prices are showing a slight increase during today’s morning session, developing the “bullish” momentum formed the day before, when the instrument managed to retreat from its local lows. The reason for the emergence of upward dynamics was the correctional sentiment in the market, as well as the proximity of the Easter holidays, which increased the urge of investors to take profit. At the same time, gold is still under pressure from a strong dollar and rising US Treasury yields. The instrument is controversially influenced by yesterday’s speech by US President Joe Biden, who outlined his plan to modernize American infrastructure worth more than $ 2 trillion. So far, only the general features of the ambitious reform have been presented, which should affect various aspects of the US economy, and also, according to Biden, will strengthen national security and withstand global competition with China.

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