Review of the dollar, euro, pound, yen, aussi and gold prices for January 27, 2021


The European currency is trading flat against the US dollar during today’s Asian session, consolidating near the 1.2150 level. Investors are in no rush to open new trading positions, preferring to wait for the Fed’s monetary policy comments to be released tonight. Recall that the markets were a little wary after Joe Biden’s statements that he is ready to adjust the previously announced package of measures to support the US economy in the amount of $ 1.9 trillion. European investors today expect the publication of a block of macroeconomic statistics from Germany and France on the level of consumer confidence in February and January, respectively. In addition, attention will be drawn to the speech of the ECB chief economist Philip Lane, who can comment on the recent statements by Christine Lagarde about a possible double recession in the eurozone.


The British pound is trading mixed against the US dollar during today’s Asian session, holding near record highs since May 2018. The pound gained momentum after the publication of unexpectedly strong macroeconomic statistics from the UK on the labor market on Tuesday. Thus, the number of applications for unemployment benefits in December fell sharply from 38.1 thousand to 7 thousand with the forecast of a reduction only to 35 thousand. At the same time, the unemployment rate from ILO in November over the past three months still increased from 4.9% to 5%, but turned out to be better than the expected 5.1%. The average salary including premiums in November increased by 3.6% 3M / Y, accelerating from the previous rise by 2.8% 3M / Y. Analysts’ forecasts assumed growth of the indicator by 2.9% 3m / y.


The Australian dollar is showing mixed performance against the US currency in today’s Asian session, developing a sideways channel in the short term. Investors’ attention is focused on the controversial macroeconomic statistics from Australia, which failed to significantly support the buying mood in the market. Thus, the consumer price index in Q4 2020 slowed down from + 1.6% qoq to + 0.9% qoq, which, however, turned out to be slightly better than market expectations at + 0.7% qoq. At the same time, the index of confidence in the business environment of the National Bank of Australia in December fell sharply from 13 to 4 points, which turned out to be twice worse than market expectations. Obviously, a significant drop in confidence in the business environment is largely due to the epidemiological situation, which remains difficult, despite all the efforts of states and the start of vaccination campaigns.


The US dollar is strengthening against the Japanese yen in trading in today’s Asian session, recovering from the decline the day before. American investors are awaiting the publication of the final minutes of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve today, but for now they are playing out the usual signals. Recall that after Joe Biden’s statements about a possible adjustment of his plan to stimulate the American economy, markets fear that some of the measures will not be implemented in the near future. The Japanese currency, in turn, is under slight pressure after today’s publication of macroeconomic statistics from Japan. The index of coinciding indicators in November fell from 89.4 to 89 points, while the market forecast at 89.1 points. At the same time, the index of leading indicators for the same period increased from 94.3 to 96.4 points, slightly falling short of analysts’ expectations of 96.6 points.


Gold prices are slightly declining today, developing the “bearish” momentum that formed at the end of the last trading week. The asset was pressured by the comments of US President Joe Biden, who spoke in favor of adjusting his plan to stimulate the American economy, since it was repeatedly criticized by Republicans because of its excessive cost. In addition, investors are in no hurry to open new trading positions ahead of today’s publication of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting, expecting that the regulator may also react to the recent statement by Biden.

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