Review of the dollar, euro, pound, yen, aussi and gold prices for February 16, 2021


The European currency is slightly strengthening against the US dollar during today’s Asian trading session, updating local highs since January 29. The reasons for the further growth of the euro are technical factors and the decline of the American currency, which remains under pressure without new drivers in the market. In turn, the more confident growth of the instrument at the beginning of the week is hindered by the appearance of uncertain macroeconomic statistics from the eurozone. Thus, the volume of industrial production in the eurozone in December decreased by 1.6% mom after rising by 2.6% mom in the previous month. Analysts had expected negative dynamics to appear, but had hoped for only -0.6% m / m. In annual terms, production decreased by 0.8% y / y, accelerating the decline from the previous -0.6% y / y. Today, European investors are awaiting the publication of data on the dynamics of the eurozone’s GDP for the 4th quarter of 2020.


The British pound is showing solid gains against the US currency during today’s morning session, hitting record highs since April 2018. The pound is still taking advantage of the weakness of the US dollar, while there are practically no new drivers on the market. Macroeconomic statistics released on Monday from the UK failed to significantly affect the dynamics of the instrument. House price index from Rightmove rose 0.5% mom in February after falling 0.9% mom in the previous month. In annual terms, however, the indicator slowed down from + 3.3% y / y to + 3.0% y / y. British investors are now awaiting the publication of January consumer inflation figures, which are likely to continue to slow down.


The Aussie has shown moderate gains against the US currency during this morning trading session, hitting local highs since January this year. Markets in the US were closed on Monday for President’s Day, so there were no new drivers for the instrument. Investors are still awaiting a decision by the US parliament on a new $ 1.9 trillion economic support program. Despite opposition from Republicans, Joe Biden and the Democrats are expected to have the political power to push the package forward without splitting or changing it. In turn, macroeconomic statistics from Australia exert some pressure on the positions of the Australian dollar today. Thus, the volume of new home sales in the country in January from HIA showed a sharp decline by 69.4% mom after rising by 91.8% mom in the previous month. Analysts had expected the indicator to slow down only to + 14.1% m / m.


The US dollar is significantly strengthening against the Japanese yen during today’s Asian session, updating local highs since February 8. The instrument adds about 0.25% and is actively testing the level of 105.60 for a breakdown upward. Despite the weakness of the American currency in the market, the dollar again wins in the race for a “safe” asset. It is curious that the yen is practically not helped by relatively good macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Thus, the data released on Monday reflected the growth of GDP in Japan in the 4th quarter of 2020 by 3% qoq, which turned out to be better than the market forecasts at the level of + 2.3% qoq. Data released today reflected a 0.4% mom decline in the service sector activity index in December, after falling 0.6% mom in the previous month.


Gold prices are showing modest gains during today’s Asian trading session, correcting after a bearish start to the week. Analysts associate the fall in the instrument with a further increase in demand for risky assets as the global economy demonstrates recovery trends. Additional pressure on the price of gold was exerted by the yield on US Treasury bonds, which reached its 11-month maximum yesterday. Markets, in turn, are awaiting the final approval of Joe Biden’s $ 1.9 trillion economic stimulus program. The fact that Donald Trump was acquitted, against whom the impeachment proceedings were launched, also proved to be a powerful enough positive factor for the markets. Investors have made sure that Biden is not seeking to get even with his political opponent, and is also determined to provide assistance to the affected economy. In addition, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urged, speaking at the G7 meeting last Friday. The head of the regulator advised not to hesitate with new support measures in order to accelerate the recovery of the global economy after the pandemic.

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