Profit-taking may begin on the Russian market


The Moscow Exchange index rose strongly yesterday, adding 1.9% for the main trading and approaching the resistance of 3,500 points.

Shares in the oil and gas sector looked good. Thus, Rosneft has once again updated its historic highs, the growth continues for 5 consecutive sessions. This is not surprising: Rosneft is winning back not only high oil prices, but is also the main beneficiary of the increase in Russia’s oil production quota in April. However, the paper looks overbought for a short time, and oil is decreasing by a percentage this morning.

It is very risky to get carried away with shorts for this issuer: Rosneft looks fundamentally undervalued, and it can also start buying back its shares from the market at any time.

Taking into account the fact that American futures are still trading at a quarter percent minus, we expect a small profit taking in the oil sector, which may well drag the entire market down.

Sberbank shares won back the “ascending triangle” pattern and almost reached the growth target of 290 rubles. If the external background does not improve sharply, then here too we can see the reduction of longs.

The situation is absolutely different with the securities of ferrous metallurgy, which for the last few sessions look worse than the market. Meanwhile, the situation on the world market has become favorable, and dividends on the sector’s shares promise to be, if not a record, then close to it. Probably, the decline in these securities was caused by a small profit-taking and the release of money for the purchase of the same oil industry and Sberbank. We expect that today and tomorrow the demand for the papers of ferrous metallurgy will return again.

Norilsk Nickel has grown by 2.7%. But for now, this should be viewed as a technical rebound, including due to the closing of shorts after a 20% collapse. The company said yesterday that it plans to stop the flow of water to two of its affected mines in a week. However, nothing was said about when they will resume work, and how much damage the company has suffered as a result of the last two accidents. Therefore, it is still dangerous for cautious investors to buy shares of the company in the medium term.

Before making a decision, we advise you to pay more attention to the dollar rate against world currencies. The dynamics of American indices and commodities now largely depends on it. Today the dollar is growing again. So, the euro-dollar pair went under the level of 1.19.

Despite yesterday’s favorable external background, the ruble did not make any serious attempts to grow. Bidding ended at around 74 rubles per dollar. The decline in oil prices and the growth of the dollar on the world stage today will turn the dollar-ruble pair towards the resistance of 74.7. However, for its breakdown and consolidation above, some strong negative driver is needed, which is not yet visible on the horizon.

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