Oil will support the Russian market, but purchases should be treated with caution


As a result of yesterday, the Moscow Exchange Index lost a quarter of a percent. But this decline was largely due to dividend cutoffs at Norilsk Nickel and Severstal. Major blue chips, with the exception of Gazprom, closed higher, which gives hope for stronger buying today.

So far, in the morning, the external background favors a slight increase: American futures are traded near zero, but industrial and precious metals have risen in price. Oil is growing by 1.4% and costs $ 70.4 per barrel.

The OPEC + ministerial committee will be held today. Judging by the fact that in recent days we have not seen the stuffing of information in the media from “sources close to OPEC”, there are no contradictions within the cartel. Therefore, we are waiting for the announcement of the decision that OPEC + will continue to increase production according to the previously agreed scenario.

The question remains about the growth of production by Iran after the lifting of sanctions from it. According to estimates, the country can quickly increase production of raw materials by 1-1.3 million barrels per day, which effectively neutralizes all OPEC + efforts to create an oil shortage.

But one way or another, expensive oil will support the Russian stock market. We expect that today the favorites will be the shares of oil companies, which in recent weeks have looked weaker than the general market.

However, shopping should be handled with caution. Oil can either go further, to the area of ​​$ 72-73 per barrel, or quickly go into the $ 65-68 range if negative information appears.

Among other securities, Sberbank is still interesting, which is about to close the dividend gap and open the way for rewriting historical highs. But this will happen, naturally, with a positive external background.

Gold continues to rise. A stop is possible around 1950 dollars per ounce, but most likely, this milestone will be quickly overcome and gold will storm the more important mark of 2000. Therefore, the shares of gold miners should be kept in portfolios – they now look the most promising and safe.

The shares of the Moscow Exchange itself look unreasonably cheap. After the dividend gap, they started to sag still. Meanwhile, the exchange is one of the beneficiaries of the expected increase in the key rate of the Central Bank. We recommend that you carefully select the paper.

The ruble in pairing with the dollar continues to consolidate slightly above the strong support 73. The absence of attempts to storm it suggests that in the event of a negative, the ruble may fall rapidly.

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