Norilsk Nickel share price today: forecast and technical analysis

Trading results

At the previous trading session, shares of MMC Norilsk Nickel rose by 1.54%, closing at 23,760 rubles. The paper looked at the market level, adding 1.57%.

Short-term picture

The trading session on Tuesday in Norilsk Nickel shares began with a rapid growth in quotations – the shares broke through 23,400 rubles. and rushed up. However, already in the region of 23 800 rubles. the bulls met with resistance – the resistance survived after several hours of unsuccessful testing.

This morning, Norilsk Nickel shares will lose about 2.3% due to the passage of the dividend cut-off – by the end of 9 months of 2020, the company will pay 623.35 rubles to securities holders. per share. This assumes another descent to 23,200 rubles. In addition, an unfavorable external background is taking shape this morning, so it can be assumed that the level will at least be punctured, and the decline in the first hours of trading will be deeper. If at the end of the day the share price closes below 23,200 rubles, then the next support will be 22,600 rubles. The implementation of this option may worsen the medium-term prospects, since in this case the 200-period moving average important for the trend will be broken.

Moreover, if sentiment improves during the day, and 23,200 rubles. will resist, then we can expect a quick closure of Norilsk Nickel’s dividend gap. Taking into account the continuing high prices in the key markets of the company and the weakened ruble in recent days, a positive scenario in the mid-term is still the most likely.

  • Resistances: 23800/24050/24500
  • Supports: 23200/22600/22000

External background

The external background is forming moderately negative this morning. American indices after the close of our daytime session on Tuesday remained at about the same levels. Asian sites are trading in different directions today and do not show uniform dynamics. Futures on the S&P 500 index in the morning are down 0.1%, contracts for Brent oil are in the red by 1.5% and are around the level of $ 49.3. All this, taking into account the passage of the dividend cut-off, suggests that if the external background persists, the opening will go below the previous day’s close by more than 2.3%.

Long-term picture

Since 2009, Norilsk Nickel shares have been in a big up-trend. Growth impulses alternate with periods of sideways consolidation, drawdowns are quickly redeemed, indicating the strength of the trend. The last period of prolonged sideways consolidation was observed from the beginning of 2015 to November 2018. Quotes came out of another sideways upward, and since then the shares have grown by about 1.5 times, supported by the growth in prices for key Norilsk Nickel products.

The threat of the spread of coronavirus led to a large-scale decline in quotations in March 2020. At the end of May, an accident occurred at CHPP-3, owned by Norilsk Nickel. Due to the incident, the shares rolled back again, laying the risks of significant financial consequences for the company. As a result, the papers were again in the wide saw.

In November 2020, a new wave of growth began, within which all-time highs were updated. Despite the local overbought, the long-term outlook on the securities is generally positive.

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