Norilsk Nickel share price today: forecast and technical analysis


Trading results

At the previous trading session, shares of MMC Norilsk Nickel rose by 0.45%, closing at around 27,388 rubles. The paper outperformed the market, which lost 0.46%.

Short-term picture

At the opening of the trading session on Thursday, the sellers made an attempt to develop the downward movement. At the moment, the quotes pierced 27,000 rubles, but soon the drawdown was bought out, the securities closed in positive territory.

The short-term technical picture has improved somewhat, the stochastic sell signal on the watch is ignored for now. The bulls again took the initiative into their own hands, the corrective pullback was interrupted. The last local minimum was higher than the previous one, which indicates the relevance of the growing trend. At the same time, before the breakdown of the last top by 27,550 rubles. there is a likelihood of securities going sideways in the range of 27,000-27,550 rubles. If the bulls are still able to take the mark in the next couple of days, the growth targets will shift to 28,000 rubles. and 28,200 rubles.

It is important for sellers to break below the previous minimum by 27,100 rubles, and then break 27,000 rubles. and 26 800 rubles. Only in this case the growing trend from the beginning of May will be broken. Now this scenario is less likely than a continuation of the rise or sideways consolidation.

  • Resistances: 27550/28000/28200
  • Supports: 27000/26800/26500

External background

The external background is mixed this morning. American indices remained at about the same levels after the close of our main session on Thursday. Asian markets are trading in negative territory today. Futures on the S&P 500 index are up 0.5%, Brent oil is in the red by 0.4% and is near the level of $ 66.8. All this suggests that if the external background persists, the opening will take place near the previous day’s close.

Long-term picture

Since 2009, Norilsk Nickel shares have been in a big up-trend. Growth impulses alternate with periods of sideways consolidation, drawdowns are quickly redeemed, indicating the strength of the trend.

Trend indicators on the weekly timeframe look up. The last correctional wave at the end of February was caused by the news about the flooding of Norilsk Nickel mines. Due to the incident, the production plan for 2021 was reduced. However, the successful completion of the second phase of rebuilding work at the end of March and the confirmation of the production plan provoked a rebound. At the moment, the negative driver has already been largely incorporated into prices.

In the first half of April, Norilsk Nickel announced that work at the Oktyabrsky mine had resumed. This became a positive driver for quotes. Thus, the risks of disruption of the terms of restoration of works were greatly minimized. In addition, the company announced the launch of a $ 2 billion buyback. The buyback factor may support Norilsk Nickel shares until mid-June.

On the positive news, the upper limit of consolidation was broken since the end of February – 24,500 rubles. With its breakdown, the technical picture improved, and a month later the first target of growth by 27,000 rubles. has been achieved. Depending on whether the bulls will be able to gain a foothold above this level, the possibility of updating historical tops will depend.

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