Yesterday, Russian stocks continued to sell off as a result of the negative reaction to the FAS’s decision to initiate a case against ferrous metallurgy companies, which provoked a correction of the entire market from historical highs. Only in the evening did the situation begin to improve slightly.
The main event of the day was the US Federal Reserve meeting. The regulator expectedly left the rate at the same level and at the same time kept the volumes of buybacks of government and mortgage securities. Fears about the speedy curtailment of the quantitative easing program did not come true.
This caused a drop in the dollar exchange rate and, accordingly, an increase in the cost of commodity assets. The only alarming thing is that the American stock market yesterday did not react to this event at all. But today, American futures are growing by half a percent.
So the discovery awaits us with growth. Better than the market should be the shares of oil companies as a result of the oil move to the region of $ 67 per barrel. It is possible that oil will try to jump to $ 70 per barrel, but still the fair price for the next month is seen in the region of $ 64-66 per barrel.
A medium-term bet should be placed on Gazpromneft, which lags behind Rosneft and Lukoil in growth dynamics, and a speculative bet on Rosneft, which has fallen more than others over the past couple of weeks.
Gold miners will also grow up. Their securities should be kept in portfolios, as gold is showing all signs of a new upward wave forming. Now gold is trading at the resistance of $ 1,780 per troy ounce. Its breakout is quite capable of strengthening the uptrend.
Norilsk Nickel sank 2.3% yesterday. This was due to the understanding that the announced share buyback did not support the quotes that much. Given that Potanin and Deripaska are unlikely to present their securities for buyback, retail investors will only be able to “surrender” every 7-10 shares. But today the MMC is receiving support from the rise in prices for its products.
We recommend refraining from building up medium-term longs on ferrous metallurgy stocks until the situation with the FAS claims is clarified. If they are large, then another one or two collapse of quotations cannot be avoided.
A slight negative for the shares of commodity companies is the strengthening of the ruble. The ruble was gradually strengthening during Wednesday, but the positive from the FRS gave it new strength. This morning, the dollar-ruble pair is trading at 74.3.
One gets the impression that before new political threats emerge, the dollar-ruble pair will again go into the usual range of 73-76. However, we recommend buying the ruble against the dollar only speculatively. Potential political and sanctions risks have not gone anywhere, and the state of the domestic economy does not give hopes for a significant strengthening of the Russian currency.
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