MMK, NLMK and Severstal will not allow the market to update the maximums


Yesterday, the Russian stock market once again renewed its all-time high and even managed to climb above 3620 points. Fixation above this mark would open the way for the Moscow Exchange Index to the next target – 3680 points. But that did not happen. And an important role in the subsequent decline in Russian shares was played by the news about the initiation of a case by the Federal Antimonopoly Service against three leading ferrous metallurgists.

They suffered the greatest losses: MMK -5.2%, NLMK -3.9%, Severstal -3.3%.

If the FAS manages to prove collusion or price manipulation in the domestic market, and there is practically no doubt about this, then the company will face turnover fines. It is difficult to predict their size so far, but despite the continued growth in steel prices on the world market, one must be ready to speculatively exit the securities of these companies.

Yesterday Sberbank renewed its all-time high, going above the mark of 300 rubles. We assumed such a scenario, saying that around 300 rubles. there will be inhibition of growth or even a slight correction. We continue to view Sberbank shares positively.

Norilsk Nickel announced a share buyback program, which also made it one of the growth leaders. In total, no more than 3.4% of the authorized capital will be redeemed for $ 2 billion at a price of 27,780 rubles per share. Considering that Potanin and Deripaska will not submit their stakes for redemption, it turns out that slightly less than 10% of the remaining shares will be redeemed. That is, it will not work to buy up shares now and hand over them all later. Thus, buying Norilsk Nickel under the put option is not very interesting. Although the program itself will support quotes at least for those reasons that the volume of earnings per share will be greater.

Mosbirge soared by 3% yesterday. The paper is very good, but it is traded at “fair” prices, we do not see any serious growth potential.

Yesterday afternoon, oil began to rise after the OPEC + verdict to maintain the previously approved parameters of the deal. And for the first time in many, many months, it was possible to reach an agreement in one day. This means that there are no disagreements within the cartel, and the “third wave” of the pandemic, which has swept over some countries, does not particularly frighten oil workers.

This morning, quotations are trying to gain a foothold above $ 66 per barrel. Reaching the $ 70 mark in early May will not surprise us. Therefore, today you can bet on the oil sector, where the most interesting paper is Rosneft, which has sagged in recent days. By the way, she is not threatened by FAS investigations.

In general, the external background in the morning is neutral. Investors are waiting for the speech of the head of the Fed Jerome Powell after the meeting of the regulator. From him I would like to hear hints about the announcement of the timing of the curtailment of the quantitative easing program. So in the evening, movements in the stock market and in the dollar can be strong and volatile.

The dollar-ruble pair continues to trade in the area of ​​75. There it will remain all day until the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve.

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