The Mosbirzh index yesterday did not reach just a few points to a historic high and turned down, losing 0.45% at the end of the day.
The drop was largely due to the long overdue correction of oil securities. The leader of the decline was Lukoil (-2.8%), which published its reports for the 4th quarter of last year, according to which free cash flow decreased by 41% compared to the 3rd quarter. The fact is negative, as it reduces the size of dividends, but it is enough to think about the past, it’s time to win back high oil prices this year. Although it is possible that in the near future the paper will trade worse than its colleagues.
Pripal and Sberbank, which almost completely won back the “ascending triangle”, after which the speculators took profit. Sberbank shares look promising in the medium term. Next week we are waiting for the decision of the Bank of Russia to raise the key rate, which will have a positive effect on the banking sector shares. This does not apply to VTB, a miracle must happen for it to start catching up with Sberbank, which has gone far ahead.
Surprisingly, the American stock market was greeted with inflation data: the indicator rose to 1.7% in February on an annualized basis from 1.4% in January. But the market decided it was better to continue to win back the imminent $ 1.9 trillion in the economy. The document has already been sent for signature to Biden. However, this factor is practically included in the current quotes.
In the meantime, in the morning, American futures are growing by half a percent. In the black are oil and metals. This promises a positive opening of the Russian stock market. If the external background continues to improve, then the Moscow Exchange Index will try to renew its historical highs again. However, it is still better to take speculative profits there, at least partially. You should think about new medium-term purchases when the Index fixes above 3500 or during a serious correction.
Possibly, today the stocks of ferrous metallurgists will start to rebound. Yesterday Severstal showed an example, adding 1.4% in a day. Sector stocks look locally oversold and at the same time fundamentally interesting, if only because of huge dividends.
Oil continues to hover above $ 68 a barrel. Yesterday’s statistics of the US Department of Energy on reserves, which recorded an increase in the indicator by 13.8 million barrels against the expected 0.8 million, did not cause a negative market reaction. Everyone understands that these are the consequences of the recent abnormal cold weather. Moreover, this growth can even be called positive, as it indicates the continuing problems in the processing sector.
So far, we do not see any reasons for fundamental changes in the oil market.
The ruble against the dollar ended the day at 74. However, 73 rubles per dollar is still seen as a reinforced concrete barrier to the strengthening of the Russian currency. There are prerequisites for a slight growth of the ruble today, but so far in the morning trading, traders are in no hurry to win back them. Most likely, there will be no significant changes in the foreign exchange market today.
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