It will be difficult for the Russian market to grow further


As a result of the main trading on Friday, the Moscow Exchange Index lost 0.8% and closed below 3500 points. However, this decline in the indicator was an echo of the fall in shares in the evening trading on Thursday, the last session of the blue chips ended with growth.

But the technical picture for the ruble indicator is not very good for the “bulls”: it will be possible to speak about the resumption of the growth phase only after the Index is confidently consolidating above 3500, for which there are no reasons yet.

American futures are trading near zero this morning. Investors are still under pressure from the growth of US Treasury yields, which theoretically should facilitate the flow of capital into risk-free instruments. But judging by the fact that UST prices do not rise, these fears are largely far-fetched.

But one way or another, the American market does not want to grow, which affects us as well. Most likely, after the phase of the previous rise, the market simply lay flat in anticipation of the appearance of new real or imaginary growth drivers.

If there are no new stresses, such as another increase in sanctions risks and a collapse in oil, then Russian stocks will remain sideways for some time.

This morning, an additional negative for us is the decline in oil by a third percent. There are fears that after Friday’s bounce of 2%, oil will again paint a bold red candle. But for now, we are inclined to believe that the market is now playing out the negative Friday statistics on the number of active drilling rigs in the US, the number of which has grown significantly: from 309 to 318. As a rule, the effect of this factor ends by lunchtime.

However, the risks of oil falling below $ 60 a barrel have not gone away. Therefore, you should be careful with oil stocks.

Sberbank is among the promising securities. The bank’s Supervisory Board recommended paying dividends at the level of last year, which did not come as a surprise to the market, but supported the quotes. Thus, at current prices, the dividend yield of Sberbank’s usual is 6.5%, and that of preferred shares is 7%, which is not bad for a blue chip, especially considering that Sber usually closes the dividend gap very quickly.

Now the area of ​​292 rubles acts as a resistance for Sberbank’s “usual”. But an ascending triangle is forming on the daily chart. In early March, Sberbank has already broken through the same “triangle” upward, most likely, he will deal with the current one in a similar way, but a little later.

Not far from the strong support of 22 thousand, Norilsk Nickel is traded. On March 5, there was an upward reversal from this mark. We believe that even now it makes sense to take risks and take MMC with the expectation of a rebound of at least 24 thousand rubles.

We continue to have a positive view on ferrous metallurgy. Forecasts say that the rise in world steel prices will continue in April, after which they will stabilize. Thus, given the weakness of the ruble, steelmaker shares may again outperform the market.

But the prospects for the Russian currency are not so bright. The ruble was not very happy about the un-expected decision of the Bank of Russia to raise the key rate in March. Attempts to increase the ruble ended in nothing.

It is highly likely that the dollar-ruble pair will soon test the upper boundary of the flat at 74.7, and in case of its breakdown, it will go to the area of ​​the next resistance at 76.

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