Western markets will be closed today for the celebration of Catholic Christmas. So we have to bargain without external guidelines. In such conditions, we expect neutral dynamics of blue chips and a shift in demand towards the second tier, where strong movements can be observed in some securities.
We observed this even yesterday: the usual Mechel soared by 15.7% without any informational reasons. The papers of her “daughters” have also grown. Such anomalous and groundless movement in the same Mechel was observed more than once.
What will “shoot” today – one can only guess, watch the quotes and try to speculatively join the movement.
Gazprom has moderately decreased (-0.67%), and this can be regarded as the fact that investors do not really believe in the possibility of the United States with the announced tough sanctions to disrupt the completion of Nord Stream 2. I really want to speculatively buy Gazprom shares, but fears are still high, maybe it’s better to wait until the sanctions are announced or at least clarify their nature.
The main world news on Thursday was the signing of the main agreement between the European Union and the UK within the framework of Brexit. The parties will carry out mutual trade without any restrictions, which is positive, first of all, for Foggy Albion. But the market’s reaction to this was very weak, almost imperceptible, although earlier difficulties with signing the agreement were repeatedly the reasons for corrections. Perhaps the successful “divorce” of the EU and the UK markets will win back after returning from the Christmas holiday.
The dollar-ruble pair unexpectedly fell sharply yesterday and returned below the level of 74. It is difficult to say who and why formed such a demand for rubles. It is possible that it was the Bank of Russia that sold the remaining currency from the purchase of shares in Sberbank and Aeroflot to the National Welfare Fund.
But buying the ruble in the medium term is very risky. Already at the beginning of the new year, the Central Bank will sharply reduce the volume of foreign exchange interventions due to expensive oil and the completion of the sale of foreign currency from the NWF. At the same time, Russia’s balance of payments is now one of the weakest over the past many years.
The ruble can fall very quickly and strongly at any moment.
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