Investors should be prepared for a reversal of the Russian market


It seems that we didn’t rejoice for long in the reduction of political tensions. New risks at any time can start harmful actions on Russian stocks and the ruble.

Another spy scandal erupted over the weekend, this time with the former until recently quite loyal Czech Republic, which accused the Russian special services of involvement in the explosion of an ammunition depot in 2014. The Czechs expelled 18 of our diplomats, and we expelled 20 Czechs. But it is much more dangerous that the question of the actions of the Russian special services will be raised at the summit of ministers of the EU countries. It is not difficult to guess what verdict they will make.

Earlier, the United States reacted very painfully to the mirror-like expulsion of their diplomats and the sending of the American ambassador to Washington for “consultation”, saying that by these actions Russia was intensifying the confrontation.

Russia transferred ships and aircraft to the Black Sea for “exercises”, to which Great Britain sent its ships there to “support Ukraine.”

In general, the situation is again alarming. Shopping is scary, but I really want to.

The technical picture of the Moscow Exchange Index suggests that it would be nice to rewrite the historical maximum. The growth target is the area of ​​3650 points – there is the upper border of the ascending channel. At the same time, the indicator confidently holds the support line of the medium-term uptrend, which is now passing slightly above 3500 points.

The external background can be called neutral this morning. Stock Asia completed trading mainly in the “green” zone. American futures are slightly declining. But industrial and precious metals are growing, with the exception of nickel and silver. Oil is losing one third of percent, but it is speculators who traditionally win back Friday’s statistics on the growth of drilling activity in the States in the first half of Monday.

So we will open, most likely, with a small growth, but you need to be ready for the resumption of sales at any moment. This is especially true for the securities of ferrous metallurgy that were heavily overbought in the last days of last week. Medium-term investors should keep them in their portfolio, as in any case they will be more expensive in the near future.

Of the securities for today, we like Sberbank and Rosneft the most, which would need to win back the previous decline.

On Friday, the dollar-ruble pair began an upward reversal from a slight intermediate support at 75.3. Today, in morning trading, the fall of the ruble has accelerated: the Russian currency is losing about 0.7% against the dollar. While long positions in the pair look more promising and certainly safer.

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