Correction hit global equity markets yesterday. In the FRS minutes published the day before, investors again saw the risks of a more rapid curtailment of the quantitative stimulus program for the US economy. Japan has declared a state of emergency due to the coronavirus. In general, the reasons for the sales are rather fragile, but the overheated market has had enough of them.
The Russian stock market lost 0.9% on Thursday. However, blue chips traded unevenly, which suggests that there are no signs of a massive exodus of investors from ruble shares. The drawdown is unlikely to be deep and prolonged.
Today the external background is neutral, which means that we will open close to yesterday’s close.
Medium-term investors should continue to maintain their positions, the time has not yet come for their reduction. You can try to bribe the shares of gold miners and Gazprom. These securities are interesting and speculative.
Yesterday Rosneft outperformed the market on falling oil, which even managed to grow by 0.1%. It is very risky to take paper, even with a target for several days, at any moment it can fall dramatically.
The dollar-ruble pair went well above 75, but ended the day at the 74.6 resistance. It is possible that today the pair will try to roll back towards 74, including due to expectations that the Bank of Russia may raise the key rate immediately by a percentage point.
The Ministry of Economic Development yesterday raised its forecast for GDP growth in 2021 from 2.9 to 3.8%. You can believe it: high prices for oil, gas and metals will temporarily boost the country’s economy. But the fact that the authorities will be able to keep inflation within 5% is hard to believe. We do not see any demand for ruble assets, with a high probability a wave of ruble devaluation will roll in the fall, which will contribute to the rise in prices.
It turns out to be a vicious circle: buying OFZs is scary because of inflation and devaluation risks, and the lack of an inflow of Western capital, at least in government securities, provokes a weakening of the ruble.
Based on this, we still do not recommend buying the ruble against the dollar or the euro, even speculatively. Longs on the dollar-ruble pair look more promising and safer.
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