In the coming days, Rosneft shares may rise to resistance by 538 rubles

Trading results

Rosneft shares fell 0.3% in the last trading session. The closing price was RUB 523.95. The paper traded worse than the market. Trading volume amounted to 1.6 billion rubles.

Short-term picture

On Monday, the securities were able to reach local growth targets and reached the level of 531.4. It was not possible to pass the resistance level 532. Then the quotes rolled back to the support level of 518 and consolidated above it. The technical picture indicates the emergence of strength among buyers: an attempt to grow in the coming days to an important resistance level on the weekly chart 538 is possible. A break above the 532-538 area is important to determine the end of the mid-term correction that starts at the end of March.

If the quotes are able to reach the 538 mark, they may not break it the first time. Then the organic will be a pullback to the level on the daily chart 532.

Until securities have consolidated above the 532 level, the road is open for trading in the 500-532 range. The lower border of the range is the main target of the correction and is interesting for building up long positions. At the same time, the long-term growth scenario was not fulfilled. After the end of the correction waves, there is a high probability of a resumption of the uptrend with the renewal of the 2021 highs.

What to do? For open medium-term long positions, the first reference to sell is in the 590-595 zone. Intermediate obstacles 532 and 538. Growth targets will change as the upward movement and the length of the impulses breaking through important resistance levels.

On the 4-hour chart, the RSI curve is in the neutral zone at 41 points. There are no divergences from the chart on the RSI indicator. Technical indicators indicate a margin for the growth of quotations. However, first of all, it is necessary to monitor the price fixation on the daily chart above or below the boundaries: 532 and 508 to determine the further scenario of the movement.

  • Resistances: 524/532/538
  • Supports: 518/515/508

External background

The external background was moderately positive in the morning. The S&P 500 Index futures are up 0.1%. Asian indices are trading mostly in the green zone. Brent crude is up 0.3%. The opening of trades in Rosneft securities will take place slightly above the level of Monday’s closing.

Long-term picture

Rosneft is the first oil company to return to levels seen before the February-March sale. Since the lows of November 2020, Rosneft quotes have risen by 69%.

The formed movement achieved medium-term growth targets in the 548-560 area. There is still a global growth target of 620-650.

The previous weekly candlestick consolidated below the level of 535, this indicates a possible continuation of the correction to the weekly support levels of 500-510, then the uptrend will continue (one cannot ignore the breakdown of 535 downward).

If the weekly candle rises above 538, then growth is expected to resume towards the indicated targets.

In a long-term picture, you need to look at the close of the weekly candle at the end of Friday’s trading.

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