How long will the stock market fall


The Russian stock market closed the main session 0.7% higher, although US futures were mostly declining throughout the day. But the situation deteriorated sharply with the opening of stock markets in the United States: sales intensified, which led to the fall of the American broad market indices by 1.7-2.5% by the end of the day.

As a result, the S&P 500 Index completed trading under the support of 3850 points. If today in America we do not see a rebound, then the trend may change to a downtrend. Falling 0.5% this morning, US futures indicate that bearish sentiment is strengthening.

It is difficult to name any reason for the large-scale sales. Yes, the yields of US government securities are growing, which is called the growth of inflationary fears. But just a few days ago, the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, twice stated that inflation will reach the target of 2% very soon. So the fall of America is temporary. True, it is not yet clear how long this time will last …

Against such an external background, we will open today with a decline with the departure of the Moscow Exchange Index under the support of 3400 points. Closing the day under this mark will also strengthen the positions of the Russian bears.

Norilsk Nickel continues to be the leader of the decline, where the consequences of flooding of two mines, which account for over 30% of the company’s production, are playing out. It is not yet known how this will affect the production level of the mining and metallurgical complex and how quickly the problem will be eliminated. Yesterday Norilsk Nickel lost 6.6% of its capitalization, and in just the last 4 sessions of a recoilless fall, the quotes fell by almost 18%. This is too much, a technical rebound of at least 5 percent is simply necessary. But he needs some positive news, either about the company itself, or a sharp improvement in the external background.

Far better than the market yesterday traded off the shares of ferrous metallurgy, winning back a sharp decline in the ruble. However, there is no certainty that sales will not cover this sector today.

The oil industry also held up well: despite the worldwide negative, strong local and fundamental overbought, oil looks strong. True, this morning, sales began in oil as well: quotations are falling by 1.3% and are around $ 65.3 per barrel. so the shares of Rosneft and Lukoil will be under pressure today.

It is quite logical that the ruble also collapsed on the external negative, completing the day in tandem with the dollar in the resistance area of ​​74.7. The Russian currency does not have any strong growth drivers, the support for the dollar-ruble pair in the region of 73 is getting stronger and stronger, and a miracle must happen for it to be broken. Now the next target for the devaluation movement of the ruble is the mark of 76 rubles per dollar.

However, not everything is so bad. The fall of America is unlikely to be protracted. What to do with the money received from the sale of shares, government securities, gold? Even bitcoin is falling …

So sooner rather than later, optimism will return to global markets.

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