Guideline for the Moscow Exchange index: range of 3450-3500 points


Market the day before

The trading dynamics were multidirectional. The Moscow Exchange Index fell below 3500 points. The growth leaders amid a slight rebound in oil prices were shares of Rosneft (ROSN 556.35, + 2.26%). The outsiders were Bashneft securities (BANE 1 604, -5.56%). The USD / RUB pair was trading near the 74.00 mark.

Market and company news

The Bank of Russia raised its key rate. The market’s reaction to this decision was calm. It is important that the regulator noted the likelihood of further tightening of monetary policy, given the dynamics of inflation, which is likely to continue to accelerate this year. It is highly likely that the key rate will be raised further if inflation reaches 6%. In the near future, one can expect an increase in interest rates on loans and a surge in demand for mortgages.

LSR (LSRG 2 667.5, + 3.57%) will report for 2020 under IFRS. The developer’s revenue reached RUB 118 billion, EBITDA is projected at RUB 25 billion. with a profit of 11 billion. It is expected that by the end of the current year, revenue may increase by 7%, to 127 billion rubles.

PIK Group (PIKK 2 667.5, + 3.57%) will present its financial statements for the past year in accordance with international standards. The developer’s revenue reached 371 billion rubles, including 341 billion rubles. from the sale of real estate. At the same time, EBITDA, according to the forecast, will be at the level of 79 billion rubles, and the profit will be 52 billion rubles. The value of the company’s assets at the end of the year was RUB 917 billion. The project portfolio is estimated at 630 billion rubles. The increase in the key rate of the Central Bank will cause a jump in the deferred demand for mortgages in the second quarter, as the cost of mortgage loans will grow within 0.5 p.p. According to the results of the first quarter, the sales volume may reach 100 billion rubles.

Trading Ideas

MTS (MTSS 316.95, + 0.22%), spec. purchase, purpose: 335 rubles. The telecom operator’s shares act as a protective tool in the event of a correction, the technical picture indicates an upward reversal.

Expectations

We expect multidirectional dynamics. The external background is neutral. Forecast for the USD / RUB pair: a corridor of 74.00-74.50. The benchmark for the Moscow Exchange index: a range of 3450-3500 points.

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