Guideline for the Moscow Exchange index: corridor 3550-3600 points


Market on the eve

The trading session was quite volatile. Alrosa (ALRS 106.30, + 3.73%) became the growth leaders among liquid securities ahead of the publication of operating results for the 1st quarter of 2021. Rusagro (AGRO 896, -3.45%) was among the outsiders against the background of the register closing. The USD / RUB pair was trading in the range of 76-77.50.

Market and company news

Severstal (CHMF 1,660.0, -3.03%) is to publish operating and financial results for 1Q2021. The company was expected to increase production and sales. The production of iron and steel is forecasted at the level of at least 2.5 and 3.0 million tons. The growth drivers are high demand and commissioning of new equipment. Steel prices have increased by 20% in dollar terms since the beginning of the year. Revenue could be $ 1,900 million, EBITDA – at least $ 760 million.

X5 Retail Group (FIVE 2,387.0, + 0.17%), target: RUB 3,150 The company is to publish operating results for the 1st quarter of this year. The total revenue for the specified period could have grown by 15%, to 538 billion rubles, while the revenue of the online segment could reach 9.5 billion rubles. The growth in turnover was due not only to the development of sales via the Internet and the opening of new stores, but also to food inflation. We do not forecast a significant increase in profitability, but the dynamics of X5 quotes does not reflect the improvement in operating indicators and lags far behind the market. The company does not note significant fiscal risks against the background of the cancellation of the tax agreement with the Netherlands.

Trading Ideas

Mail.Ru (MAIL 1 765.2, -2.11%), spec. purchase, purpose: 2,000 rubles. There is no negative news background. Shares are traded near the support level of RUB 1,700.

Expectations

We expect multidirectional dynamics. Forecast for the USD / RUB pair: range 76.00–77.00. The reference point for the Moscow Exchange index: a corridor of 3550–3600 points.

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