Growing oil will support the Russian market


Yesterday, that we have, that overseas ended without any significant changes. From a technical point of view, the Moscow Exchange Index remains in the middle of the ascending channel, and with a favorable external background, it may well go to the area of ​​historical highs.

There are all prerequisites for the start of such a movement today. In the morning, American futures are growing by a third of a percent, industrial and precious metals are in positive territory, oil is adding about 0.5%, creeping up to the level of $ 70 per barrel.

Several times this number has kept oil from higher. Surely even now, many will open shorts, counting on a pullback of the dollar quotes by 2. Therefore, in the event of a breakdown of this mark, the subsequent movement may be strong, a short-term oil withdrawal to the region of $ 73-74 per barrel is possible.

In this regard, we are closely watching the oil industry, which, in our opinion, is already cheaper than it should be at current oil prices.

Yesterday, among the growth leaders was the usual Surgutneftegaz (+ 3.6%). As always, the growth went without any news reasons. It is impossible to predict the further dynamics of the shares, but it is worth remembering that very often the unreasonable growth of Surgut continues for several days.

Gazprom has achieved its growth target of RUB 250. and … went on! It is possible that growth will continue up to 270 rubles, but we are not sure about that. Therefore, we will not recommend it for purchase. However, we did not believe in the current growth of the gas monopoly.

Today Norilsk Nickel promises to be better than the market, which will push up the rise in prices for its products.

Well, the position on the gold miners’ shares is still growing on the drawdowns. Inflationary fears may again push gold above $ 2,000 per troy ounce. In this regard, Polymetal looks interesting first of all, since silver prices have been growing at an outstripping pace in recent days.

The ruble is very sluggishly trying to strengthen, adding a modest 0.1% this morning. Now is the height of the tax period, and the Russian currency should receive support from increased sales of foreign currency by exporters. However, this effect is not observed. A strong obstacle to the decline of the dollar-ruble pair is still the mark of 73. We do not expect the pair to be able to gain a foothold below it.

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