Gazprom Neft share price now: forecast and technical analysis

Trading results

At the previous trading session, Gazprom Neft shares rose 0.29% to close at RUB 326.45. The papers outperformed the market. Trading volume amounted to more than 354.2 million rubles.

Short-term picture

The mixed dynamics of oil quotes again does not contribute to the continued growth of Gazprom Neft shares. The last three trading sessions continue to test technical resistance in the form of a 200-day moving average.

Now expectations are reduced to an improvement in the oil market, which will support quotations and contribute to growth above 329 rubles. Today we need to track statistics on US oil reserves from the EIA: it can become a driver for both bulls and bears. From the technical point of view, there is every opportunity for buyers to continue the upward trend, so a lot will depend on the external background.

The negative scenario is to go down to RUB 320, which is below the border of the medium-term upward channel. This signal may cause a further decline to 315 rubles. Such a scenario is still not excluded due to the uncertainty in the oil market.

  • Resistance levels: 329/333 / 337.6
  • Support levels: 315.3 / 309.5 / 302.8

External background

The external background is mixed this morning. American indices rose after the close of our day session on Tuesday. Asian sites are currently trading mainly in positive territory. Futures on the S&P 500 index in the morning are declining by only 0.06%, contracts for Brent oil are in the red by 0.05% and are around the level of $ 50.7.

Long-term picture

Gazprom Neft shares have been moving in a steep uptrend since 2016. The rise in quotations was accompanied by two corrective waves in 2017 and 2018.

In 2020, the impact of the coronavirus on world markets and oil prices led to a breakdown of the growing trend of Gazprom Neft, shares from historical highs lost more than half of their value at the moment. At the same time, the potential for a return to an upward trend remains with a decrease in the impact of coronavirus and a recovery in demand for energy resources.

On the weekly chart, the price is between the 50- and 200-week moving averages. The RSI indicator is slightly above the neutral point (50). The MACD curves show the formation of an upward trend.

It is important for buyers to gain a foothold above 331 rubles, which will open the way to levels above 338 rubles. These levels are above the moving averages. Overcoming them may strengthen the uptrend. However, the risks surrounding the pandemic remain, and this may negatively affect the quotes of Gazprom Neft.

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