Forecasts for the Moscow Exchange index for today: 3210 – 3280 points


Market the day before

Trading activity was low on Friday. In the first echelon, securities of Severstal rose (+ 2.62%). The leaders of the decline were shares of Detsky Mir (-2.57%). The USD / RUB pair was trading near 74.

Market and company news

The UK and the European Union have entered into a trade and cooperation agreement on the basis of which the parties will cooperate after Brexit. The agreement reduces the key market risks associated with the prospect of investor access to the London derivatives exchanges in the medium term. However, the positive reaction of the markets on Friday was limited by the drop in trading activity.

Gazprom shares (-0.54) looked worse than the market. The information background around the company has improved, but in recent days the risks for the short-term dynamics of the company’s securities have increased again. President Trump vetoed the defense budget, which spelled out sanctions against Nord Stream 2. However, the Senate can overturn the presidential veto. A vote on this issue in the House of Representatives will take place on Monday.

PIK group shares (+1.12) were among the leaders of the increase. The market is winning back the growth in house prices, which, according to market sources, amounted to 11% (y / y) by the end of December versus 1% annually on average over the previous seven years. Regulatory threats have a relatively weak impact on the fair value estimates of traded companies in the sector. If the average market forecast for the group’s revenue growth in 2020-2021, which is a relatively modest 15-20%, is not fully realized, this will have a limited impact on estimates. The key driver of the company’s value is dividend yield and long-term model statistics.

Expectations

We expect mixed dynamics. Forecast for the USD / RUB pair: range 73.40-75.00. The benchmark for the Moscow Exchange index: the range of 3210-3280 p.

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