Forecast of the euro / dollar pair for today


On Tuesday, March 30, by the end of the day, the euro fell in price against the US dollar by 0.42%, to 1.1714. The euro fell against the backdrop of a jump in the yield of US Treasury bonds to 1.77% per annum. Yields were boosted by expectations of a quick recovery in the US economy thanks to new fiscal stimulus and successful vaccinations. Joe Biden plans to present an infrastructure spending plan today.

The pressure on the euro intensified further due to the widening spread between German and US bond yields. Investors expect the US economy to recover faster than Europe. Lockdowns in France and Germany have darkened the short-term prospects of the European economy. Also, the demand for the dollar increased due to fears of the consequences of the default of the hedge fund Archegos Capital.

Scheduled statistics (GMT + 3)

  • At 10:55, Germany is to publish data on changes in the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed in March.
  • At 12:00 the eurozone will present a report with data on consumer prices for March.
  • At 15:15, the US will report on the change in the number of employees from ADP for March.
  • At 15:30, Canada will announce the change in the volume of GDP for January and will present the producer price index for February.
  • At 16:00 in Switzerland will be released a quarterly report on inflation from the NBS.
  • At 16:45 the US is to publish the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March, and at 17:00 it will report the change in the volume of pending home sales in February.
  • At 17:30 the Ministry of Energy will publish a report with data on changes in oil reserves.

Current situation

In the Asian session, the euro fell to 1.1704. At the time of this writing, the euro is worth 1.1732. Major currencies went up, except for the yen and franc. The yield on 10-year bonds fell to 1.728% per annum. The fall stopped at about 202 degrees (1.1702, Gann’s level).

Following the release of excellent statistics in China, Aussie and New Zealander gained support. The index of activity in the service sector in China in March amounted to 56.3 against 51.4 earlier and the forecast of 51.9. The index of activity in the industrial sector in China in March amounted to 51.9 against 50.6 earlier (the forecast was 51.3).

After a prolonged weakening of the euro and Chinese statistics, there are prerequisites for an upward correction to 1.1748. Risk appetite has increased among traders. The euro recovered to 1.1727, the pound to 1.3753.

Impulsive fluctuations are expected before Biden’s speech. Biden’s team has prepared a $ 3 trillion package. He will talk about him today at 23:20 Moscow time.

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