Forecast for the Moscow Exchange index for today: range of 3250-3300 points


Market the day before

The trading dynamics were multidirectional. The growth leaders were the shares of the Ashinskiy Metallurgical Plant (AMEZ 9.09, + 15.06%). The outsiders were Detsky Mir (DSKY 135.02, -4.93%). The USD / RUB pair showed increased volatility, trading in the range of 72.9-73.9.

Market and company news

The Bank of Russia left the key rate unchanged. This decision met the expectations of market participants. The USD / RUB pair strengthened noticeably on Friday, but the growth was observed in the morning, and after the meeting, the ruble slightly recovered against the dollar, after losing almost a “figure” to it.

The regulator’s rhetoric has not tightened, but he noted an increase in uncertainty. There is a likelihood of a pause in the economic recovery, which is superimposed on the acceleration of inflation, which is caused by the increase in producer and seller prices due to the growth of their operating and financial expenses. By the end of the year, inflation may come close to 5%. Moreover, according to the Central Bank, inflationary expectations are not anchored.

Fears of inflation acceleration and a slowdown in economic recovery do not mean a high probability of a rate hike in the first quarter. However, if these risks are realized and the USD / RUB rate rises above 80, and the volume of liquidity decreases, then the rate may be raised.

Trading Ideas

AFK Sistema (AFKS 28.254, -1.97), spec. purchase, purpose: 32 rubles. We are counting on a rebound after a correction of almost 20% in two weeks. The start of vaccination against coronavirus is a positive driver.

Expectations

We expect mixed dynamics. The growth leaders may be the shares of the oil and gas and banking sectors amid rising oil prices. Forecast for the USD / RUB pair: range 72.50-73.50. The Moscow Exchange index will roughly spend the day in the range of 3250-3300 points.

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