Forecast for the Moscow Exchange index for today: range of 3250-3300 points


Market the day before

The trading dynamics were multidirectional. The growth leaders were shares of Petropavlovsk (PORG 32.20, + 3.87%). RusAl (RUAL 38.04, -4.53%) were among the outsiders. The USD / RUB pair fell below 73.00 due to the weakening dollar on Forex.

Market and company news

The Bank of Russia will hold a meeting on monetary policy. We expect the key rate to remain at 4.25%. The weakening of the dollar against major world currencies stimulates the growth of prices for oil and metals, which contributes to the strengthening of the ruble. Inflationary expectations may intensify following inflation, the level of which at the end of the year may rise to 4.9-5.0%.

This is the main reason that, in our opinion, hinders the easing of monetary policy. The risks of playing on the weakening of the ruble when the rate is cut are not high, since it is based on the devaluation of the dollar. An increase in lending in the domestic market will accelerate the rate cut. The regulator fears the emergence of credit bubbles, therefore, it will refrain from this step in the event of high inflation and positive GDP dynamics. Reducing the rate by one step is possible at the end of March 2021. We do not rule out a corresponding statement following the Central Bank meeting. The market reaction to this event, in our opinion, will be neutral.

Trading Ideas

AFK System (AFKS 28.82, -0.41), spec. purchase, purpose: 32 rubles. We are counting on a rebound after a correction of almost 20% in two weeks thanks to the start of the coronavirus vaccination.

Expectations

We expect mixed dynamics. The leaders of growth against the background of the rise in oil prices can become the shares of the oil and gas and banking sectors. The USD / RUB pair will spend the day in the range of 72.50-73.00. The reference point for the Moscow Exchange index: a range of 3250-3300 points.

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