Forecast for the Moscow Exchange index for today: range of 3230-3280 points


Market the day before

The trading dynamics were multidirectional. BSP shares rebounded (BSPB 54.49, + 5.32%). The leaders of the decline were papers Qiwi plc (QIWI 767.0, -2.23%). The USD / RUB pair spent the day close to 73.50.

Market and company news

Retail chains will lower prices for a number of products. X5 Retail (FIVE 2 836.5, -1.83%) and Magnit (MGNT 5 431, -1.15%) announced the cancellation of trade margins on some of the socially important food products by the end of the first quarter after signing an agreement with the Ministry of Agriculture.

We assess this step as slightly negative. The price level is different for distributors and by region, so the margin, in principle, can be controlled. Franchise implementation schemes are not fully understood. In any case, the price increase has already taken place, and retailers will not trade at a loss. Their net margin in the first quarter of 2021 is likely to remain in the range of 2.0-3.6%.

Trading Ideas

Qiwi plc (QIWI 767, -2.23), spec. purchase, purpose: 1,000 rubles. We believe that restrictions on individual transactions will not have a devastating effect on the translation service. A cut in the annual dividend is also unlikely.

Expectations

We expect mixed dynamics. There are no important events in focus. The growth leaders may be the shares of the banking and oil and gas sectors amid rising prices for hydrocarbons. Forecast for the USD / RUB pair: range 72.90-73.50. The benchmark for the Moscow Exchange index: a range of 3230-3280 points.

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