Forecast for the Moscow Exchange index for today: range of 3230-3280 points


Market the day before

The trading dynamics were multidirectional. The Moscow Exchange Index renewed its maximum at the beginning of the day, but corrected by the evening, the RTS went below the psychologically significant mark of 1,400 points. The growth leaders were shares of VSMPO (VSMO 21,080, + 6.36%). After the growth the day before, Mechel’s preferred shares sank (MTLRP 73.50, -4.92%). The USD / RUB pair traded in the 72.90-73.90 range as oil dipped below $ 50 a barrel.

Market and company news

OPEC has adjusted its market estimate. The estimate of production cuts in non-member countries has been revised by less than 0.1 million barrels per day to 2.5 million. This factor contributed to the rebound in the oil price after its sharp correction on the news of uncertainty about Brexit and strict quarantine in Germany for Christmas and New Year.

We believe that the EU and the UK have a high chance of agreeing on future agreements, if not by the end of the year, then in the first quarter of the future. The quarantine will also have a limited impact on hydrocarbon consumption as large consumers will not shut down. We expect the oil price to stay close to $ 50 per barrel of Brent.

Trading Ideas

Qiwi plc (QIWI 799, -2.68), spec. purchase, purpose: 1,000 rubles. We believe that restrictions on individual transactions will not have a destructive impact on the translation service. A cut in the annual dividend is also unlikely.

Expectations

We expect mixed dynamics. There are no important events in focus. The benchmark for the Moscow Exchange index: a range of 3230-3280 points. The USD / RUB pair will trade within 72.9-73.7.

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