Forecast for the Moscow Exchange index for today: range of 3230-3280 points


Market the day before

The trading dynamics were multidirectional. The growth leaders were shares of HSCI (ISKJ 38.60, + 9.69%). Corrected after the increase the day before BSP prefs (BSPB 51.74, -3.54%). The USD / RUB pair fluctuated in the range of 73.30-73.90.

Market and company news

Sberbank (SBER 277.27, -0.96%) predicted economic risks with the introduction of the digital ruble. In our opinion, the vectors are indicated correctly, but the risks themselves are exaggerated. There are no plans to limit the convertibility of the digital ruble. On correspondent accounts and in reserves, assets in the form of a blockchain may well be taken into account, and for real settlements, most likely, they will continue to use the traditional form of money.

The creation of currency blockchain platforms does not exclude the emergence of money market instruments for working with digital currency, built, in particular, on the technology of a trusted chain, for example, digital mortgages. Leading banks are likely to be the first to be able to work with such instruments in a kind of “sandbox”. Perhaps they are already developing in this area. In the next couple of years, in our opinion, there is no risk of rate hikes due to the introduction of blockchain platforms.

Trading Ideas

Qiwi plc (QIWI 786, -2.48), spec. purchase, purpose: 1,000 rubles. We believe that restrictions on individual transactions will not have a destructive impact on the translation service. A cut in the annual dividend is also unlikely.

Expectations

We expect mixed dynamics. Focus on the Fed meeting. The market assumes that the regulator will not change the rate, but it cannot be ruled out that monetary stimulus measures will expand following the example of the ECB, which took appropriate steps a week earlier. The scenario of the dollar weakening against the euro to 1.22 is also possible. Against this background, the USD / RUB pair may fall to a new minimum since August – to the area of ​​72.20. The benchmark for the Moscow Exchange index: a range of 3230-3280 points.

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