Forecast for the Moscow Exchange index for today: a corridor of 3210-3260 points


Market the day before

The market continued to recover. The growth leaders were shares of Mechel (MTLR 67.8, + 8.60%). The outsiders were RusAl plc (RUAL 34.98, -1.93%). The USD / RUB pair fell back to 75.

Market and company news

Rise in the commodity market. The price of oil surpassed the $ 51 a barrel mark, while aluminum climbed above $ 2,000 a tonne amid news of a shock recovery in US GDP in the third quarter. The ruble is still weakly reacting to the rise in commodity prices: its exchange rate is about 3% higher than it was a week ago. Demand at the OFZ auction was relatively weak. In our opinion, the dynamics of the ruble will depend on the situation with the quotes of raw materials assets. Until the end of the week, the USD / RUB pair is able to stay within 73-74.

Mortgage rates may drop. The government does not exclude that the rate on mortgage loans will drop to 6% per annum. The volume of mortgage lending reached 3.2 trillion rubles. In our opinion, despite the extension of the preferential mortgage program, as well as the lag in the pace of construction of comfort-class housing from demand, it will not be possible to break the record. Against this background, the volume of the corresponding loans will amount to 2-2.5 trillion rubles.

The beneficiary of the events described above will be Sberbank (SBER 269.64, +2.90), since other representatives of the banking sector are not ready to approach the leader, and this will be one of the important drivers of the growth of its quotes.

Trading Ideas

AFK Sistema (AFKS 28.831, +0.56), spec. purchase, purpose: 32 rubles. We are counting on a rebound after a correction of almost 20% in two weeks. The start of vaccination against coronavirus will serve as a positive driver.

Expectations

We expect mixed dynamics. The market will follow the dynamics on external markets. Forecast for the USD / RUB pair: range 74.00-75.00. The reference point for the Moscow Exchange index: the corridor 3210-3260 points.

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