Forecast for the Moscow Exchange index for today: 3250-3300 points


Market the day before

The trading dynamics were multidirectional. The growth leaders among the most liquid shares were shares of Rosseti (RTSI 1.8132, + 5.87%). Chinese securities fund FXCN ETF (FXCN 3,790.5, -4.80%) was among the outsiders on the background of news around Alibaba. The USD / RUB pair was trading below 74.

Market and company news

The head of the Central Bank commented on the ruble exchange rate. According to Elvira Nabiullina, the regulator is interested in maintaining the floating ruble exchange rate. It should be noted that exporters who are more profitable from the weakening of the national currency, themselves support its course through sales. Now the market rate is about 4% higher than expected, which, in our opinion, does not pose a problem for the economy. The increase in taxes on income from securities transactions will slow the outflow of funds next year. In the absence of external shocks, the ruble can become a less volatile currency, which, despite taxes, will increase investor interest in ruble assets.

Gazprom (GAZP 205.60, -0.67) cut production. Due to a drop in consumption amid the pandemic, production this year amounted to about 452 billion cubic meters. m, which is approximately 10% less than last year’s result. Despite this, the shares of the state corporation have risen in price by 33% since October. The growth driver was the rise in gas prices in Europe to $ 200 per thousand cubic meters. The quotes are supported by the continuation of the construction of Nord Stream-2. Recently, a site was completed in the German part of the sea, the project can be fully implemented in January-February.

Trading Ideas

HeadHunter (HHRU 2 350.4, +0.94), spec. purchase, purpose: 2 600 rubles. Quotes rise after successful bond placement. We expect HHRU shares to become the top performer in 2021 amid strong business growth and increased employment.

Expectations

We expect mixed dynamics. Trading activity will remain low ahead of the New Year holidays. Forecast for the USD / RUB pair: range 73.00-74.00. The reference point for the Moscow Exchange index: 3250-3300 points.

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