Forecast for the Moscow Exchange Index: 3650 – 3700 points


Market on the eve

The trading week ended with growth. The Moscow Exchange Index has renewed its maximum for the third time in a row. Among the growth leaders were Severstal (CHMF 1,835.6 + 4.30%). Corrected shares of VTB Bank (VTBR 0.052725 -2.87%). The USD / RUB pair dropped below 74.

Market and company news

Positive mood prevails. The USD / RUB pair dropped below 74 amid an improvement in the external information background. But, perhaps, the main reason for the growth of the USD / RUB rate was the weakening of the dollar against major currencies against the backdrop of macro statistics from the US labor market. The dollar lost almost a figure against the euro, the EUR / USD pair jumped to 1.216. The stock market continues to rise, both against the background of the strengthening of the ruble, and as a result of the inflow of funds into funds focused on Russia. The weakening dollar, in addition, contributes to the growth of prices for resources and defensive assets (including gold). And there are just a lot of raw material companies on the Russian market. We believe that more and more funds will be placed by international investors in emerging markets, including the Russian one, its dynamics for some time, perhaps until the end of May, will be better than on the main world markets.

Trading Ideas

Aeroflot (AFLT 65.6 + 0.40%), Spec. purchase, the goal is 74 rubles. We expect the company to open sales and increase the number of flights, including overseas destinations in the summer. Traffic in Q3 could hit a record if strict coronavirus restrictions in Europe are lifted.

Expectations

We expect mixed dynamics. The leaders of growth will be securities of banks and the oil and gas sector. Forecast for the USD / RUB pair: range 73.50 – 74.50, according to the Moscow Exchange Index: 3650 – 3700 p.

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