Forecast for the Moscow Exchange Index: 3620-3670 points


Market on the eve

The trading dynamics were multidirectional. The Moscow Exchange Index has renewed its next maximum. The leaders of growth were the shares of Polyus (PLZL 78.19, + 7.67%). The outsiders were the shares of MKB (CBOM 6.587, -3.49%) amid news of additional capitalization. The USD / RUB pair was trading in a range of 74-75.

Market and company news

Gazprom (GAZP 240.65, + 1.33%), spec. purchase, purpose: 260 rubles. Gas price in Europe exceeded $ 300 per thousand cubic meters. m amid growing demand due to cool weather. This is 80% higher than the baseline forecast of the corporation itself, and this gives reason to count on its strong results for the second quarter. Revenue is expected at 2.8 trillion rubles. with EBITDA of 715 billion rubles. The gas market is recovering both due to higher prices and an increase in supply volumes, as reserves in UGS facilities are running out. We have raised the medium-term target for the company’s stock from 267 to 320 rubles. at the end of the year, assuming an increase in average export gas prices. In the next two years, Gazprom’s net debt will fall below 2x EBITDA, which will provide comfortable conditions for repayment of obligations, despite the attraction of borrowings to finance the gasification program until 2025. At the same time, the corporation will avoid a dividend cut. The short-term growth driver for Gazprom shares is provided by technical factors. The nearest target on paper is a maximum from the beginning of 2020 at around 260 rubles. If it breaks out against a favorable external background, the stock will continue to rise confidently.

Trading Ideas

Tatneft JSC (TATN 515, + 0.76%), spec. purchase, purpose: 550 rubles. We believe that the negative news around the company has played out. The technical picture indicates a rebound with a target of RUB 550, a stop-out should be set at RUB 490.

Expectations

We expect mixed dynamics. The leaders of growth will be securities of banks and the oil and gas sector. Forecast for the USD / RUB pair: range 74.10-75.10, according to the Moscow Exchange Index: 3620-3670 points.

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