Sberbank analysts point to the ruble’s resilience to external factors, using the example of the market reaction to an extremely sharp jump in US inflation in April. In addition, experts see a decrease in geopolitical risks, and also expect a reduction in foreign currency purchases within the framework of the budget rule.
Will the ruble rate continue to grow, and to what marks is it possible? Anna Zaitseva, an analyst at FINAM Group, answered the question of Fortrader magazine.
– Currently, the ruble is appreciating against the background of the general tendency for the dollar to weaken after the statements of the FRS representatives that the regulator does not plan to tighten monetary policy yet, despite the sharp acceleration of inflation. According to the Fed, the rise in inflation is temporary, and now is not the time to think about raising the rate, given the unstable situation on the US labor market.
An additional plus for the ruble is the growing oil prices, coupled with the softening of production quotas and a reduction in the volume of purchases of foreign currency by the RF Ministry of Finance within the framework of the budget rule.
In addition, the ruble exchange rate is supported by the normalization of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia, which will help slow the growth of consumer prices, return real rates in the economy to the positive area and increase the attractiveness of ruble investments for investors.
The above factors are favorable for the further growth of the ruble exchange rate. Our target range at the end of Q2 is at the level of 71-75 rubles / dollar, and at the end of 2021 – 69-74 rubles / dollar.