Flat is expected before the release of NonFarm Payrolls in EURUSD – ForTrader.org financial magazine


On Thursday, July 1, by the end of the day, the euro fell against the US dollar to 0.07%, to 1.1848. In the American session, the price rallied to 1.1884, but closed closer to the weekly low of 1.1837.

The dollar index fell to 92.25 and climbed to 92.60. The market reacted positively to the data, which showed a decrease in the number of initial jobless claims last week.

According to the report of the US Department of Labor, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States for the week ended June 26 decreased by 51 thousand compared to the previous week and amounted to 364 thousand (the forecast was 388 thousand) against 411 thousand a week earlier. (revised from 415 thousand)

US manufacturing activity continued to rise in June, albeit at a slower pace than in May. The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 60.6 from 61.2 in May (the forecast was 61).

The market warmed up ahead of an important report on the US labor market. He should confirm the fast recovery of the American economy.

Scheduled statistics (GMT + 3)

  • At 12:00, the eurozone is to release PPI for May.
  • ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech at 15:30.
  • At 15:30 in the US, there are data on changes in the unemployment rate and the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector for June. The US and Canada will announce changes in the trade balance for May. Canada will announce a change in building permits for May.
  • At 17:00, the US is to publish data on changes in production orders for May.
  • At 20:00 Baker Hughes will release a report on the number of active oil rigs.

Current situation

Market activity in Asia is low. With the exception of the New Zealander, major currencies are trading in the red. Price fluctuations of major currencies are within 0.10%.

At the time of this writing, the euro is worth 1.1836. The market is awaiting the release of the US employment report. In June, the United States is expected to increase by 700 thousand jobs compared to 559 thousand in May and the unemployment rate of 5.7% against 5.8% in the previous month.

The indicator of 700 thousand is taken into account by the market. To continue the rally, it must exceed 800 thousand. If the indicator goes below 800 thousand, then the dollar should expect a downward correction.

For fluctuations during the release of the NFP, the price range of 1.1812 (135 gr.) – 1.1884 (maximum for July 1) can be distinguished. Flat is expected until 15:30 Moscow time. Also at this time, a speech by the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde is planned. It won’t have time to influence the market during the NFP publication, but it could change sentiment in 10-30 minutes.

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