Falling oil will drag Russian stocks down


The Russian stock market rose 1.6% yesterday on the Moscow Exchange Index. However, this rally was mainly driven by the reaction to the strong rebound in US markets on Monday night.

Sberbank looked very weak, saying that the active inflow of non-resident funds into Russian shares was over. However, profit fixation is not visible yet. It is possible that it can be observed today against a not very good external background: before our opening, American futures are trading in a slight minus, but oil has fallen strongly, by 1.6%, having gone to the region of $ 49 per barrel.

It is impossible to exclude a further decline in oil, in the region of $ 45 per barrel. It can be triggered by hedging the prices of future supplies by major oil producers. Today we are waiting for statistics on oil reserves from the US Department of Energy. Positive data is unlikely to help oil grow, but any negative data will only accelerate the decline.

On the other hand, the dollar resumed its decline against the basket of world currencies. The euro-dollar pair is growing by a quarter of a percent before our opening and will try to go above 1.22 in the next few hours. If this can be done, the weak dollar will partially support the oil quotes.

But already during the Asian session, the quotes of most industrial and precious metals are in the green zone. So, domestic metallurgists have good chances to continue their growth. Steelmakers’ papers now look technically overbought, but this should not be embarrassing: steel prices do not think to stop the upward trend yet. In addition, exporters will be supported by the weakening ruble.

We continue to have a short-term positive view of Gazprom, which supports the rise in gas prices in Europe and the expectation of completion of the completion of Nord Stream 2. The media reported that the laying of the “pipe” in the waters of Denmark will begin on 15 January. The strategic goal of the company’s shares growth is the area of ​​230 rubles.

The dollar-ruble pair continues to grow. Today it will storm the resistance of 76, and if it consolidates higher, it will go to the next target – 78 rubles per dollar.

The ruble is played against both by declining oil, the growth of anti-Russian hysteria, and the traditional for the end of the year increase in the volume of money in the economy due to the completion of budget calculations. In the near future, large investors will start to hedge their ruble positions by buying foreign currency, which will create additional pressure on the Russian currency.

In such circumstances, the preferred shares of Surgutneftegaz are very interesting, the dividend yield on which may become one of the highest in Russia.

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