On Friday, the Russian stock market fell almost 0.3% on the Moscow Exchange Index. Despite expensive oil, the shares of most oil companies ended trading in the “red” zone. Sberbank fell by 3%, which leads to bad thoughts that non-residents have begun to fix profits on Russian shares.
Today, before our opening, the external background is contradictory. American futures are growing very weakly, but oil prices have fallen by 2.5%. The drop in oil can be explained both by the strengthening of quarantine measures practically throughout Europe, and by the negative Friday statistics from Baker Hughes, which recorded another increase in the number of active drilling rigs – this time by 5 units to 263. But last week, oil completely ignored these factors …
Judging by the absence of buyers in the securities of oil companies at the end of last week, when oil was at multi-month highs, today the sales of oil companies will only intensify. And it will drag the Mosbirzhi Index along with it.
We are not at all sure that oil will be able to keep the $ 50 per barrel line, and not go lower.
On the other hand, prices for many industrial and precious metals have skyrocketed, despite more than half a percent decline in the euro-dollar pair. Gold generally went above $ 1,900 per troy ounce. It is possible that a new upward trend has begun to form in gold.
So today, shares of gold mining companies will be among the growth leaders. Securities, primarily Polyus and Polymetal, can be tried to be included in medium-term portfolios in the hope that investors will continue to leave for protective gold.
We are also expecting growth from Norilsk Nickel, which will win back the rise in nickel prices by 1.6%, as well as an approximately percentage rise in prices for platinum and palladium.
The dollar-ruble pair spent the whole last week hitting the 73 mark. It was possible to pierce it, but it did not work out to gain a foothold below. Today everything is against buying the ruble. Taking into account the traditional desire of large investors at the end of the year to hedge their ruble positions by buying foreign currency, the end of the tax period, falling oil and a growing dollar against world currencies, the ruble may decline strongly.
Already today, the dollar-ruble pair may well consolidate above 74 and head for the next technical resistance 76.
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