Yesterday during the main session, the Moscow Exchange Index managed to rise 0.85%. There were several reasons for the upward movement. First of all, this is the continued growth of American futures, and then of indices. Oil prices also rose. Finally, the market was delighted with the bill submitted to the US Congress on sanctions against Russia, which provides for “punishment” only of officials for “violation of human rights.”
The shares of Sberbank and Norilsk Nickel were growing at an outstripping pace, signaling that after sales at the beginning of the week, non-residents are returning to Russian shares. Lukoil, which had been heavily resold in recent days, also fired.
This morning the external background speaks in favor of continuing purchases: American futures are growing by a quarter of a percent. Oil adds half a percent, having gone above $ 59 per barrel. In the black are industrial and precious metals.
Gold went under $ 1,800 an ounce. But the resumption of its growth is only a matter of time, so it may be worth including in the medium-term portfolios the shares of gold miners, which will also perform a protective function when the ruble devaluation resumes.
However, we advise you to exercise great care when shopping. The main threat to both the Russian and American stock markets comes from the strengthening dollar. The euro-dollar pair has already gone below 1.20. The growth of the dollar is negative for commodity assets and indicates that many players are still going into defensive dollar assets.
A rising dollar may cause a correction in the American stock market, after which we will fall at a faster pace.
Oil also looks overheated, which will have less and less positive impact on Russian stocks and the ruble. It is possible that quotes for the nearest futures will go above the psychologically important level of $ 60 per barrel for some time. But long-distance futures are trading cheaper, and all mid-year oil price forecasts also assume lower prices.
Don’t forget that today is Friday. This means that by the evening the desire to take profits and cut longs will increase.
The ruble strengthened yesterday the unexpected decision of the Ministry of Finance to sharply cut the volume of foreign currency purchases within the framework of the budget rule, despite the oil price increase. Today this factor will cease to operate, and on the one hand the growth of oil will put pressure on the ruble, and, on the other, the growth of the dollar against the basket of world currencies.
It is possible that in the morning the ruble will try to strengthen slightly, but a turn of the dollar-ruble pair upwards can be expected at any moment. We do not recommend buying the ruble against the dollar in the medium term.
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