Yesterday the Russian stock market rose again after two days of decline. The increase in the Moscow Exchange Index amounted to almost 0.7%. However, the rise was patchy. The oil sector has fallen in price, despite record oil prices in recent months.
This morning, oil continues to rise, adding interest to yesterday’s close and trading around $ 51.6 per barrel. Yesterday, quotes were slightly supported by statistics from the US Department of Energy: after a giant growth a week earlier, stocks fell by 3.1 million barrels, while expecting a reduction of 1.9 million. Average daily production in the United States fell by 0.1 million to 11 million barrels.
However, it seems that oil is still playing out the devaluation of the dollar to a greater extent than forecasts of fuel consumption growth written on the water after the recession of the coronavirus pandemic.
It is not excluded that today the shares of oil companies will look better than the market, which in recent days removed the short-term technical overbought.
We continue to look positively at Gazprom. The first target of its growth is the area of 210 rubles, and more strategic – 230 rubles. The paper will continue to be supported by expectations of completion of Nord Stream 2 and high gas prices.
We are expecting growth today from the securities of metallurgists, including Norilsk Nickel, which sank yesterday. A weak dollar will push up prices for the products of this sector’s issuers.
On the whole, on the market, the impression is that the strength of the stock “bulls” is running out. The desire to take profit before the new year is growing. It is possible that for some time the market may lie sideways to remove the technical overbought. At the same time, money is already flowing into the second echelon, where we recommend paying attention primarily to the securities of energy companies.
Neither the dollar’s decline against major world currencies, nor the fundamentally unjustifiably expensive oil have led to an increase in the ruble exchange rate. The dollar-ruble pair still cannot break through the 73 mark. It is possible that these attempts will be repeated today, but in general the emerging picture suggests that the ruble will very quickly lose ground if the external background deteriorates or sanctions risks appear on the horizon.
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