Don’t expect a deep drawdown on the stock market


The Russian stock market opened very briskly yesterday, once again rewriting its historic highs. But then a sell-off came to the market, triggered by a slight pullback in oil after OPEC announced a decrease in the forecast for oil demand.

Oil stocks pulled the Russian market down. We can say that investors have found a reason to take profit. However, we do not think that the decline will be strong and prolonged. The continued inflow of money into the stock market will prevent securities from falling deep.

There is no particular desire to sell in the West either. Over the weekend, German Chancellor Merkel announced tougher quarantine measures, but this did not provoke any collapse. The German index generally closed with a confident plus, not having time to respond to the decline in stock America. There is no longer any doubt that all economic problems will be flooded with new money that requires investment.

Today the external background before the opening of our trades develops moderately negative. American futures are trading slightly positive, but oil is losing more than half a percent, going below $ 50 per barrel.

So the opening awaits us just below yesterday’s close, and then the dynamics of trading will be determined by the external background and the vector of the mood of non-residents towards Russian shares.

As before, we have a positive view of the stocks of metallurgists, especially of the black ones. The rally in steel prices continues. Today this sector will support the weakening of the ruble. However, metallurgists are now heavily overbought, but in case of possible drawdowns, they should be selected counting at least for traditionally generous dividends.

We believe that Gazprom has not been fully won back either, which should grow upon completion of the construction of Nord Stream 2 and an increase in gas prices. In addition, the paper has lagged far behind the overall market growth since the beginning of November. Moreover, Gazprom very often grows in those periods when the uptrend of the Moscow Exchange Index ends or weakens.

It can also be expected that in the coming days, if not hours, the demand will shift to the heavily lagging second-tier securities, where we recommend looking first of all at the energy sector.

The ruble still began to win back strong technical overbought and fundamental weakness. The mark 73 for the dollar-ruble pair was not taken again. Therefore, it is not surprising that the ruble reacted yesterday evening with a sharp decline in the price of oil and “red” America.

It is possible that today the dollar-ruble pair, if it does not receive new short-term drivers of decline, will consolidate above 74, opening its way to 76.

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