Decline in VTB shares is still possible – ForTrader.org financial magazine


Trading results

In the previous trading session, VTB shares fell 0.81%, closing at 4.53 kopecks. The papers looked approximately at the market level. Trading volume amounted to more than 15.8 billion rubles.

Short-term picture

VTB shares continue to actively correct and consolidate below the 50-day moving average. The technical picture looks moderately negative, but the RSI is not reporting overbought.

The last daily candle shows the uncertainty in the direction of the trend. Today the external background is mixed, but there are signs of improvement. If the trend continues, buyers can seize the initiative and try to gain a foothold above the 50-day moving average – 4.6 kopecks. Next, you need to test 5 kopecks, where the 21-day moving average is located slightly below.

The risk is a descent under 4.4 kopecks, which will open the way to an even greater dive in the direction of 4.1–4 kopecks. From a technical point of view, this scenario is still possible.

  • Resistances: 5 / 5.25 / 5.5
  • Supports: 4.4 / 4.2 / 4

External background

The external background is neutral this morning. American indices rose after the close of our main session on Wednesday. Asian markets are trading in different directions today and do not show uniform dynamics. Futures on the S&P 500 index are down 0.15%, Brent oil is up 0.1% and is near the level of $ 66.6.

Taking into account the results of the previous evening trades, it can be assumed that if the current background persists, the opening on VTB shares will take place close to the closing level on Wednesday.

Long-term picture

Since mid-March 2020, VTB shares have been in an upward trend. It was interrupted in early August amid a decrease in dividends from 50% to 10% of net profit. The market reacted with a sell-off, which led to the formation of a downward trend, and the price was close to the March values.

Until mid-October, VTB shares continued to decline, until the company announced its intention to pay 50% of its net profit for 2020 – the news became an excellent driver of the share price growth. Also, now the stocks are supported by positive expectations of financial results in 2021 and further growth of dividends.

The 50- and 200-week moving averages began to signal an upward reversal of the curves. MACD curves turned sideways. The RSI indicator is in the overbought zone.

The long-term target is 5.5-6 kopecks so far. However, at the moment the stocks are very overheated, which may soon lead to a correction, after which we can talk about the continuation of the upward trend.

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