correction within 1% is possible – ForTrader.org financial magazine


Market the day before

Trading dynamics were mixed. The main fluctuations were observed in the bonds of the third-fourth echelons. The growth leaders among the most liquid shares were Ozon.ru (OZON 3,505.0, + 3.68%). The outsiders were Polymetal (POLY 1,721.5, – 2.22%). The USD / RUB pair dropped below 74.

Market and company news

For the first time this year, the ruble has significantly strengthened against the dollar. The dynamics of the Russian currency indicates that investors have begun to win back the accumulated strengthening potential. Oil prices, as well as precious and industrial metals, jumped 1.5-2% yesterday, and this was the reason for the ruble strengthening game. We believe that the full potential has not yet been won back, we confirm the forecast assuming a decline in the rate in the range of 70-72 by the end of the month.

The Ministry of Finance will hold an OFZ auction. In addition to the paper with indexed par, which is traditionally in demand mainly among pension funds, the remainder of the seven-year issue 26236 will be offered. The yield of OFZ jumped yesterday and remains at the highest level over the past three weeks. Issue 26236 closed yesterday at 5.86% per annum. It is possible that, despite the substantial ruble liquidity reserve, the demand will be concentrated below 99.5% and the Ministry of Finance may place only a part of the issue with a 5-15 bp discount. to the current price.

Trading Ideas

Mail.Ru (MAIL 2,029.6, – 1.43, spec. Buy, target: RUB 2,300. The dynamics of the IT giant’s quotes is noticeably behind other securities in the sector in the absence of negative fundamental factors.

Expectations

We expect mixed dynamics or correction within 1%. On the external background, the focus of events in the United States. Forecast for the USD / RUB pair: range 73.00-74.00. The Mosbirzh index is likely to spend the day in the 3450-3500 range. The leaders will be shares of banks and the oil and gas sector.

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