The Russian stock market rose again yesterday, adding 0.4% on the Moscow Exchange Index. However, many blue chips closed in negative territory, which indicates the weakness of buyers and the market’s readiness to take profit.
In particular, Rosneft closed in the red, despite the record price of oil for recent months. Very risky investors can try to open shorts with short stops on it, especially since oil is dropping by half a percent this morning.
Again, Gazprom (+ 4%) was much better than the market. The paper was supported by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who at an annual press conference expressed confidence that Nord Stream 2 would soon be completed. As you know, Putin does not throw words to the wind.
The paper may well continue to grow further. Gazprom lagged far behind the market as a whole as a result of a month and a half rally. In our opinion, the quotes have not yet fully taken into account the rise in gas prices. The technical target of the movement of shares of the gas monopoly is the area of 230 rubles.
By the way, the growth of Gazprom at the end of a long upward trend is another signal that the market is ready to go into correction. This morning there are all reasons for this: except for the declining oil, American futures are losing a third of percent, the correctional strengthening of the dollar against the basket of world currencies has begun.
However, the fall is unlikely to be strong and prolonged. Most likely, the markets will remove overbought with volatile sideways.
At the same time, we expect the overflow of investment capital into shares of the “second tier”, which also had little participation in the recent growth of the share market. Here we recommend paying attention to the dividend securities of the power industry.
Gold consolidated above the important mark of $ 1,850 per troy ounce, which put gold miners’ shares in the growth leaders yesterday. It is possible that gold prices have begun to form a new upward wave with a target above $ 2,000 per ounce.
Aggressive speculators have already taken profits on gold, and the most successful ones even managed to ride in shorts. At the same time, the precious metal did not play fully the last round of dollar depreciation. Therefore, we recommend that you pay close attention to the securities of Polyus and Polymetal, first of all, which will also be supported by the very likely weakening of the ruble.
Yesterday, the dollar-ruble pair finished trading just below the strong support at 73. But, most likely, it was again a “puncture”, not a breakdown of the level. Today, falling oil prices, and the growth of the dollar against world currencies, and the factor of Friday play in favor of buying the dollar against the ruble.
We are waiting for the decision of the Central Bank on the rate. Not even the decision itself, any outcome of the meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank will not greatly affect the market, but the subsequent comments of the regulator. From them we will try to understand what kind of monetary policy will be pursued by the Central Bank in the future, which, on the one hand, needs to stimulate economic growth and reduce the cost of domestic borrowing with low interest rates, and, on the other hand, prevent inflationary processes from strengthening.
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