The intrigue regarding the OPEC + decision remains. Today, the cartel will negotiate for the fifth day in a row, which has never happened before. The basic option is to increase oil production by 0.4 million barrels per day, starting from August until the end of the year.
But the UAE is not giving approval to this decision, trying to revise the baseline of its production, and thereby bargain for a larger volume.
If the decision to increase production by 0.4 million barrels is made, this will be positive for the market, since such an increase will be lower than the growth in fuel demand due to the global economic recovery. The road for oil prices will be opened at $ 80 per barrel.
Naturally, this will support the oil companies’ papers. We recommend taking Lukoil and Gazpromneft among them. Rosneft is trading very volatile and unpredictable, it is better to refrain from buying it.
This morning a barrel of oil costs $ 76.2, about the same as it was at the close of trading on Friday. On the fact of the OPEC + verdict, an easy and short-term correction cannot be ruled out.
American futures have also remained virtually unchanged since the morning. Metal prices are slightly up.
So we are waiting for the opening of trading today without fundamental changes. Most likely, we will spend the whole day sideways, given that stock America is not trading today because of yesterday’s independence. Maybe this is for the best – the American market is growing without recoil for 7 sessions in a row, the desire to take profit is growing, and during the day off it will be possible to come up with new growth drivers. In general, the mid-term trend in the American stock market remains upward.
But Russian bulls have reasons to activate. Today the media reported that the authorities plan to tighten the tax screws further, increasing the pressure on commodity companies. In addition, Rospotrebnadzor estimated the damage to the Russian economy from the coronavirus at almost a trillion rubles.
The dollar-ruble pair is trying to win back the Friday decline, which was caused by the cover of speculative longs on the dollar’s decline against a basket of world currencies, after the release of contradictory statistics on employment in the US. During the morning session, the ruble fell 0.3% against the dollar.
We see no reason to buy the ruble against the dollar. The dollar-ruble pair will try to win back the “double bottom” pattern and go to the resistance at 74.6.
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