Benchmark for the Moscow Exchange index: corridor 3500-3550 points


Market on the eve

The week began with positive dynamics. The growth leaders were the shares of Pharmacy Chain 36.6 (APTK 14.1, + 4.44%) and TCS (TCSG 4 503.2, + 4.02%). Capital outflow was demonstrated by shares of RussNeft (RNFT 155, -3.73%). The USD / RUB pair was trading near the 76 mark.

Market and company news

The Ministry of Finance plans to hold an OFZ auction, and we believe that it will take place, although the demand for bonds has not yet recovered and is at a low level. The Ministry of Finance, most likely, will not come out with an aggressive proposal so as not to stimulate speculative demand. The budget does not have an acute need for money now, so there are more than 0.05 p.p. discounts. not expected. In fact, this auction is aimed at studying interest in OFZs after their strong correction amid sales. If we manage to place securities worth over 50 billion rubles, then this can be considered a good signal for the market.

O’KEY (OKEY 57.89, + 0.40%) will report for 2020 according to IFRS. The retailer’s revenue increased by 6% to RUB 173 billion. EBITDA could have reached 13.7 billion rubles. Profit consensus is unrepresentative. Earlier it was reported a 2.5% increase in like-for-like sales and an increase in revenue for the YES! (part of O’KEY Group) by 54%, up to 25.1 billion rubles. The previously noted correction, in our opinion, has been won back, but drivers for growth are not seen, so the dynamics of quotations is likely to remain sideways in April. Growth is also hindered by the company’s relatively high debt burden (3.8x EBITDA according to the latest report). At the end of 2021, revenue is projected to grow to RUB 181 billion.

Trading Ideas

Gazprom (GAZP 226.5, -0.98%), spec. purchase, purpose: 240 rubles. From a technical point of view, a rebound to the upper border of the ascending channel is likely. The growth drivers are the increase in the price and demand for gas after the weakening of quarantine measures in Europe. The company intends to complete the construction of the Nord Stream 2 project soon.

Expectations

We expect the market to grow within 1%. The external background is calm. Forecast for the USD / RUB pair: range 75.00–76.00. The reference point for the Moscow Exchange index: a corridor of 3500–3550 points.

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